GDP To Contract 1.5 Per cent: Professional Forecasters Survey

A Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the RBI shows that GDP could contract by as much as 1.5 per cent.

The survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India saw twenty-four panellists participating.

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to contract by 1.5 per cent in 2020-21 but is expected to revert to growth terrain next year, when it is likely to grow by 7.2 per cent.

Real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to decline by 0.5 per cent during 2020-21 but likely to record 6.9 per cent growth during 2021-22.

Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is likely to register negative growth of 6.4 per cent in 2020-21 but likely to grow by 5.6 per cent in 2021-22," a release of the survey by the RBI said.

Forecasters have assigned the highest probability to real GDP growth lying below 2.0 per cent in 2020-21.

For 2021-22, highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth lying between 6.0-6.4 per cent. The real gross value added (GVA) is expected to decline by 1.7 per cent in 2020-21 but is likely to record 6.8 per cent growth in 2021-22, supported by uptick in industrial and services sector activities.