Gift Nifty Crashes 333 Pts Today: How US-Israel-Iran War Impacts Indian Stocks? Short Term Outlook

Gift Nifty crashed nearly 333 points to hit an intraday low of 24,952 on March 2nd, as tensions in the Middle East continue to intensify. Iran has attacked at least six of its neighboring countries, targeting US bases and assets, in self-defense against the US-Israel barrage of airstrikes during the weekend. Further, conditions at the world's biggest choke point of oil and gas trade, the Strait of Hormuz, have become fragile, which could push crude oil prices due to the Middle East tensions. Brent may hit $100 if the conflict between the three countries does not calm down. And hence, a selling pressure or cautious stance is expected for the Indian stock market ahead.

Gift Nifty Today:

At the time of writing, Gift Nifty traded at 25,174, down by 111 points or 0.44% which is a recovery of some losses after the index touched an intraday low of 24,952.00.

This performance signals a bearish start for Sensex and Nifty as well on Monday. As of February 27, 2026, Sensex stood at 81,287.19, reporting a decline of 961.42 points or 1.2% on Friday. Meanwhile, Nifty 50 dropped by 317.90 points or 1.3% to end at 25,178.65 in the last trading session of February.

Following this, Sensex ended February 2026 in red with 0.5% decline; however, Nifty 50 outperformed with gains of 0.5% in the month.

"The Nifty is poised to open on a weak note today, with GIFT Nifty signaling a bearish start amid sharply escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran," Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth.

Sensex, Nifty Outlook For March 2, 2026:

As per the expert, the rapid deterioration in Middle East stability has triggered a broad risk-off sentiment across global markets, prompting investors to shift toward safe-haven assets. Gold and silver prices have rallied sharply, while crude oil surged nearly 9% in early Asian trade on concerns over potential supply disruptions - a development that presents a direct macroeconomic risk for oil-import-dependent economies such as India.

Further, he highlighted that this heightened uncertainty is likely to keep risk appetite subdued throughout the session. Aviation stocks may remain under pressure following the suspension of flights across key UAE routes, highlighting the immediate operational fallout from the regional instability.

Adding to the complexity, Hariprasad said, "today's weekly Nifty expiry - ahead of the Holi market holiday tomorrow - could intensify volatility. The combination of geopolitical stress and expiry-driven positioning is expected to amplify intraday swings, keeping traders cautious and reactive to global headlines."

Sensex, Nifty Technical Prediction:

For Nifty, the analyst believes the Nifty 50 remains vulnerable, with the index likely to retest the crucial 25,000 psychological mark should global tensions escalate further. This level is reinforced by significant open interest support, making it a key near-term pivot that could determine the market's directional bias.

On the upside, 25,350 now acts as immediate resistance, while only a sustained move above 25,500-25,700 can signal any meaningful shift from the prevailing bearish structure. He further said that momentum indicators continue to favour caution, with RSI (14) at 47 - below the neutral mark - and the index trading under its 200-DMA, reinforcing weakening market strength.

US-Israel-Iran War Impact On Indian Stock Market? Short Term Outlook!

In the case of India, Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings points out that for the country, which relies heavily on imported crude oil, the immediate consequence has been rising inflationary pressure triggered by higher energy prices. Elevated import costs are likely to widen the current account deficit and further strain the fiscal deficit through increased subsidy obligations.

For Indian stocks, he believes Sensex and Nifty have already responded with risk-off sentiment. Benchmark indices are expected to open lower, accompanied by heightened volatility as investors reassess geopolitical and commodity-related risks.

Stocks To Be Impacted?

"A short-term correction of approximately 1-1.5% is possible, with sectors such as automobiles, financials, and FMCG facing downward pressure. In contrast, IT companies and select export-oriented businesses may find relative support amid global risk aversion and a strengthening US dollar," said Sharma.

Moreover, energy-intensive industries, including aviation, logistics, paints, and chemicals, are likely to experience margin compression due to rising input costs, while upstream oil producers could benefit from higher crude prices. Broader market reactions include short-term corrections, potential capital outflows, and depreciation pressures on the rupee.

Additionally, Sharma said, foreign trade may be affected by increased freight and insurance costs, though India's diversified trade relationships could help mitigate some of the impact.

He lastly added that if the conflict persists without swift de-escalation, India's fiscal outlook may face further strain from higher subsidy commitments, subdued disinvestment valuations, and the possibility of expanded social spending to cushion domestic economic pressures.

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