Gold Price Outlook On Friday, September 13: What Will Drive 24K, 22K, 18K Prices Of Yellow Metal Today?

Gold prices in India are expected to hold support between Rs 71,750 and Rs 71,500 on Friday, September 13, 2024. Overnight, the Euro gained momentum against the US dollar after the European Central Bank lowered interest rates, however, gold may see resistance due to ECB president Christine Lagarde shunning another rate cut expectation in the October policy. Meanwhile, a rate cut of 25 bps is likely on the cards by the US Federal Reserve in the coming days. Gold is expected to be influenced by rate-cut scenarios, macroeconomic development and geopolitical tensions. The dollar was firm overnight.

Gold Prices In India: 24K, 18K and 22K gold prices dipped slightly in India in the early hours of Friday. 24K of 10 grams is at Rs 73,140, while 22K and 18K prices are at Rs 67,040 and Rs 54,850.

MCX Gold, Silver Prices: Yesterday, MCX gold futures ended at Rs 72,861 per 10 grams for October expiry, up by Rs 37 in a single day. Meanwhile, silver futures with December expiry inched up too at Rs 87,100 per 1 Kg.

Spot Gold, US Gold Futures: As per Reuters copy, Gold prices rose more than 1% to hit a record high on Thursday, helped by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week after U.S. data signalled a slowing of the economy. Spot gold was up 1.6% at $2,551.19 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were up 1.4% at $2,578.90.

Gold Price Outlook On Friday, September 13:

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities said, "Gold found support near $2,510 in Comex and ₹71,900 in MCX today, with the dollar index remaining stable and interest rate cut expectations keeping buying interest at lower levels. This will likely keep prices range-bound until the policy announcement and subsequent projections."

Trivedi added, "Gold prices are expected to hold support in the ₹71,750-₹71,500 range, while resistance is seen in the ₹72,200-₹72,350 zone. In Comex, gold faces resistance near the $2,525-$2,530 level."

Gold prices will also react to India's CPI inflation data which rose marginally to 3.65% in August 2024. However, RBI is still expected to keep rates unchanged in October policy, despite a Fed rate cut possibility most likely ahead.

Arsh Mogre, Economist - Institutional Equities, PL Capital - Prabhudas Lilladher said, "India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose marginally to 3.65% YoY in August 2024, up from 3.6% in July 2024, a slight acceleration but staying comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4.0% for the second consecutive month. The August figure surprised to the upside compared to market expectations of 3.42%, driven primarily by persistent food price pressures. The combined Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) rose to 5.7% from 5.4% in August. On a rural-urban split, rural inflation continued to outpace urban inflation, with the rural CPI at 4.2% YoY (up from 4.1%), driven by food prices, which rose to 5.6%. Urban inflation, meanwhile, rose marginally to 3.1% from 3.0% in July."

Looking forward, Mogre added, "while the headline CPI remains under control, the higher-than-expected print and persistent food inflation suggest that the RBI's inflation management strategy could face challenges if food price volatility persists. However, with energy costs declining and core inflation not showing major increases, there is room for cautious optimism. Given these factors and the evolving growth-inflation scenario, it is projected that the RBI will not begin its rate easing cycle before Q3 FY25, despite an increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September 2024."