Gold Rates Ahead Of RBI Policy: MCX Gold Price Falls Rs 1,550 To Below Rs1.49 Lakh; How Repo Rate Will Impact?

Gold rates in India are broadly unchanged on Monday, despite the MCX gold price falling sharply to hit below Rs 1.48 lakh mark. The performance comes ahead of RBI's 3-day policy meeting, where the market is predicting a 25 basis point rate hike amidst rising inflation and energy crisis due to elevated crude oil prices. Also, multi-decadal high treasury yields have made the case for a rate hike. A rate hike makes bonds and the dollar attractive but reduces demand for non-yielding safe haven assets like gold.

MCX Gold Price

At the time of writing, MCX gold traded at Rs 1,49,600 per 10 grams, down by Rs 790 or 0.53%. In the early trade, gold price touched below Rs 1.49 lakh mark to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,48,850 per 10 grams, registering up to Rs 1,540 decline so far in the day.

"Gold slipped on Monday, with MCX gold at Rs 1,49,150 per 10 grams, down Rs 1,245, while silver held firmer at Rs 2,26,050 per kg, up Rs 173. Spot gold is hovering around $4,135 an ounce after losing more than 3% last week and about 6% over the past month. The metal is caught between two opposing forces," said Ashish Rajodiya, Head - Commodities, PL Capital.

The expert highlighted that Friday's weak US jobs report, with payrolls up just 29,000 against expectations of 90,000 and unemployment edging up to 4.2%, has pushed the odds of an October Fed rate hike down to about 18%, from near 70% earlier in the week.

Yet that relief has done little for bullion, because Treasury yields are still sitting at multi-decade highs and a firm dollar keeps raising the cost of holding a non-yielding asset, he said.

Gold Rates In India:

Meanwhile, gold prices in India are broadly steady on Monday. 24-carat gold stood at Rs 1,49,180 per 10 grams, while 22-carat and 18-carat gold rates are at Rs 1,36,750 and Rs 1,11,890 respectively. Gold broadly down in October so far. In September month, 24-carat, 22-carat and 18-carat gold prices dropped nearly 3%.

RBI Policy Meeting: Rate Hike Ahead?

The Reserve Bank of India's 3-days policy meeting begins from October 5th to end on October 7th. The policy decisions will be declared on Wednesday.

RBI has kept policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% since December 2025. If RBI hikes rate on Wednesday, it will be first in 10 months.

"With inflation moving higher in recent months and pressures becoming more broad-based, the October MPC meeting will be closely watched. A 25 bps point increase in the repo rate is increasingly being expected, which would take the rate from 5.25% to 5.50%. The RBI's assessment of the persistence of inflation, along with the resilience in economic growth, will remain important in determining the policy stance," said Saurabh Jain, Co-Founder & CEO, Stable Money.

Gold Price Outlook Ahead

As per PL Capital's expert, the broader view is sideways, with the metal likely to stay range-bound between support at Rs 1,45,900 and resistance at Rs 1,51,500. The Fed's October policy decision is the next trigger. A clear signal that the hiking cycle is over, along with easing yields, could lift gold toward the top of that range, while a hawkish tone or a fresh surge in yields would put the Rs 1,45,900 floor to the test."

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