Gold Rates & Silver Rates Big Update: Will Gold & Silver Prices Rise Or Crash After RBI's Rate Decision ?

Gold rates and silver rates in India have dropped significantly in April so far. 24-carat, 22 carat and 18 carat gold prices are down by 1.50% in less than 1 week of the month, while silver price underperforms with a 2% decline. The overall performance of precious metals has been cautious and volatile due to a surge in the dollar and fear of rate hikes ahead. That being said, the next big event in India is the RBI's policy rates decision, which will be announced on April 8. The RBI will present the first bi-monthly monetary policy of FY27 this week.

Gold Rates In India:

Currently, the 24 carat gold price is around Rs 150,650 per 10 grams and 22 carat gold is at Rs 138,090 per 10 grams. Gold is down from its Rs 1,52,950 and Rs 1,40,020 levels that was seen in the start of the month. From the previous month's closing, gold has dropped by 1.50% so far in April.

Last month, precious metals had crashed sharply by nearly 14%.

Silver Rates In India:

Silver rate has been struggling between Rs 2.50 lakh to Rs 2.55 lakh since the start of this month. Currently, the price is around Rs 2,49,900 per 1Kg. But silver has dropped by 2% in six days of April 2026, after taking the worst hit in March month, where prices dropped by over 15.2%.

Gold & Silver Price Movement To Impact RBI's Decision?

Sonal Badhan, Economist, Bank of Baroda pointed out that gold and silver prices rally of FY26 has pushed inflation.

Although, CPI has stayed below RBI's 4% target, the latest reading showed a significant jump to 3.2% in February 2026 from 2.7% in January 2026, due to higher food inflation.

"CPI excl. food and fuel was stable at 3.4%. Among major items, personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods recorded a significantly higher inflation rate of 19.7% in Feb'26 compared to 19% in Jan'26, on YoY basis. This is on account of increase in gold prices (World Bank data: 73.4%, YoY, Feb '26), platinum prices (World Bank data: 118.5%, YoY, Feb'26) and silver prices (World Bank data: 154.9%, YoY, Feb'26)," said Badhan.

In terms of global prices of metals, the economist highlighted that there is a clear uptrend that is visible.

The economist said that global metal prices have ended FY26 with significant gains. In particular, prices of precious metals such as gold and silver witnessed the maximum
gains. In fact, gold prices rallied by close to 50% in FY26.

This can be attributed to a number of factors such as low global interest rates, increased policy uncertainty as well as gold buying by global central banks. Apart from this, an increase in investment activity also pushed prices higher as there was a steady increase in demand for gold backed ETFs and gold bar and coins."

"The volatility of metal prices will continue to pose some upside pressure to core inflation, going forward," said the economist.

What Will Be RBI's Rates Decision?

Majority of economists and experts are predicting status quo from RBI on April 8.

ICRA expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain an extended pause on policy rates through FY2027, notwithstanding the anticipated moderation in growth, given the projected uptrend in CPI inflation and persistent upside risks.

"Assuming an average crude oil price of $85/bbl, with no pass-through to RSPs, ICRA pegs the WPI at 3.5% and the CPI at 4.3% in FY2027, with risks tilted to the upside. Given the projected uptrend in CPI inflation, ICRA expects an extended pause on the policy rates throughout the fiscal in spite of the anticipated slowdown in growth, although the RBI would continue to intervene on the liquidity front," ICRA noted.

As per ICRA, the inflation trajectory remains vulnerable to global commodity price movements, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia. As per ICRA's analysis, every 10% increase in crude oil prices could raise CPI inflation by 40-60 basis points, assuming full transmission to retail fuel prices. Moreover, energy prices are unlikely to revert to the levels seen in February 2026 in the near term, even if there is rapid de-escalation.

How Interest Rates Impact Gold & Silver?

Both gold and silver are called as non-yielding assets unlike bonds, dollar or cash. So when, interest rates rise, they make yielding assets like bonds and dollar more attractive, and increases the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver which results in pressuring the prices. Notably, precious metals like gold and silver are priced in dollar, and hence any surge in dollar puts direct pressure on their prices.

As per Gotrade Internal Analyst report, when interest rates rise, especially in real terms, holding cash or bonds becomes more attractive. This increases the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver, which can pressure prices. However, nominal rate increases do not automatically weaken precious metals. What matters is real interest rates, which account for inflation expectations. When rates rise but inflation rises faster, real rates may remain low or negative, supporting gold and silver demand.

So a rate hike would push gold and silver prices down, but a pause is most likely to keep the prices steady with no big upside or downside changes. And a rate cut, could just fuel fresh rally in precious metals.

Disclaimer:The views and recommendations expressed are solely those of the individual analysts or entities and do not reflect the views of Goodreturns.in or Greynium Information Technologies Private Limited (together referred as "we"). We do not guarantee, endorse or take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any content, nor do we provide any investment advice or solicit the purchase or sale of securities. All information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should be independently verified from licensed financial advisors before making any investment decisions.