Govt Estimates FY20 GDP Growth At 5%

On Tuesday, the Ministry of Statistics released its advance estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the financial year 2019-20 to be at 5 percent.

"Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2019-20 is likely to attain a level of Rs 147.79 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2018-19 of Rs 140.78 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2019," it said.

"The growth in real GDP during 2019-20 is estimated at 5.0 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 6.8 per cent in 2018-19," the ministry's statement added.

Real Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices is estimated to increase at 4.9 percent from Rs 129.07 lakh crore in 2018-19 to Rs 135.40 lakh crore in 2019-20. In 2018-19, GVA growth was seen at 6.6 percent.

The first advance estimate takes into account the figures available for the first nine months of the current fiscal.

It takes into account the IIP (Index of Industrial Production) for April-October 2019, financial performances of listed firms for the first and second quarter of FY20, advance estimates of crop production, accounts of Central and state governments, and indicators like passenger and freight earnings of railways, air cargo handled, car sales among others.

The ministry has estimated the following sectors will register a growth of over 4.9 percent:

• Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services at 5.4 percent
• Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting at 5.9 percent
• Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services at 6.4 percent
• Public Administration, Defence and Other Services at 9.1 percent

"The growth in the 'Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing', 'Mining and Quarrying', 'Manufacturing' and 'Construction' is estimated to be 2.8 percent, 1.5 percent, 2.0 percent and 3.2 percent respectively," the ministry's release said.

The economic growth fell to 4.5 percent in the second quarter, the slowest in 6 years. The figure stood at 5 percent in the first quarter (April to June 2019).

The Reserve Bank of India has been gradually lowering its growth forecasts for the economy in every policy review. At its December policy review, the central pegged India's FY20 GDP growth at 5 percent.

The release comes ahead of the Union Budget 2020 presentation which is scheduled to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on 1 February. Second advance estimates will be released post the presentation of the Budget.