GR Exclusive: Focus On PSU Banks, Railways, Infra Stocks After Budget, Says Anand Rathi Analyst

In a rapid-fire interview with GoodReturns.In, Jigar Patel, technical analyst at Anand Rathi highlighted the interim budget which is due on February 1, 2024. One of the major expectations of the stock market is the removal of LTCG or STT. When asked about this, Patel highlighted that the move can boost investor confidence, improve market liquidity, and attract foreign funds. Among stocks that are likely to benefit from this budget, Patel picked PSU banks, railways and infra stocks.

On Budget day, the strategist expects the market to trade volatile. He has given an outlook for Sensex and Nifty 50 in the pre-and-post Budget scenario.

Here are the key excerpts from the interview:

Q1. How will the removal of Long-Term Capital Gains (LTCG) or Securities Transaction Tax (STT) in the Budget could support equity culture in India?

Ans: As far as LTCG and STT are concerned, they can support an equity culture in various ways, but the most crucial ones are

a) It boosts investor confidence.

b) Improved Market Liquidity

c) Increased retail investor engagement

d) attracts more foreign investment

Q2. Where do you see nifty and Sensex pre-and-post interim budget?

Ans: As far as Nifty levels are concerned; we are expecting 20500 before budget & Post budget 22000.

Levels on Sensex we are expecting 67000 before budget & Post budget 73000.

Q3. Any sectors that you feel will benefit from the interim budget or any of them will be a key focus in the announcement?

Ans: Mostly PSU banks, Railways & Infrastructure will be in focus.

Q4. What are your recommendations for pre-budget and post-budget?

Ans: Pre-budget kindly avoid taking aggressive bets as volatility is likely to increase. Post-budget focus on PSU banks, Railways & Infrastructure

Q5. How do you expect the market to trade on a budget?

Ans: Expectations during budget day will be highly volatile. So, retail options players/traders need to avoid buying naked options.

Q6. When do you expect Sensex to touch 1 lk?

Ans: Based on past return data, if we see overall return since inception, it is around 11-12 per cent. So, mathematically it can take 3-4 years. from now for Sensex to achieve 1LK.

Q7. When Will RBI Cut Rates In 2024?

Ans: Most probably in the second half of 2024, if CPI trends towards 4 %

Apart from this, Jigar also gave a pre-budget video interview with GoodReturns.In. When asked about how much the share market will perform, Patel said, "If you see the past data right now approximately there is 8 to 10% % of return every year so a maximum 10% return I'm expecting this particular year 2024."

On Sensex hitting the 1,00,000 mark, Patel explained its trajectory via math. He explained if you go by mathematics right now, the chances of Sensex hitting 1 lakh could be possible only after 3 to four years maximum. This is because, Patel highlighted that every year if there is an 8,000 to 10,000 kind of points jump in Sensex, going by that then it will take 3 to four years definitely for the 1 lakh mark.

What will propel India's economy to become the third-largest in the world? Patel said, the most important thing to focus on is fiscal discipline so that will be the main thing which will profile our economy as the third largest in this particular interim budget but overall yes this will take time, just like as we discussed about Sensex that 1 lakh mark will be done in 3 to four years so this will also take three to four years or even five years.

On the stance of the Interim Budget, Patel said that the Stance will be basically a vote on account of the budget, so the central government is likely to Target the fiscal deficit at 5.3% of GDP which will be the particular stance. And, we expect they are going to focus on the agricultural sector and the overall FMCG sector.

Disclaimer: The author, the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision