GR Exclusive: Here's How Much Gains Share Market May Fetch After Elections In 2024; Sensex At 1,00,000?

In an exclusive pre-budget video interview with GoodReturns, Jigar Patel, technical analyst at Anand Rathi said that Sensex may fetch up to 10% returns at least this year post-election. He also expects Nifty to touch the 23,500 or even 24,000 mark by 2024-end, but corrections are warranted as well. But when asked about the Sensex hitting the 1 lakh mark, Patel expects this to happen in the next 3-4 years.

When asked about how much the share market will perform, Patel said, "If you see the past data right now approximately there is 8 to 10% % of return every year so a maximum 10% return I'm expecting this particular year 2024."

On Sensex hitting the 1,00,000 mark, Patel explained its trajectory via math. He explained if you go by mathematics right now, the chances of Sensex hitting 1 lakh could be possible only after 3 to four years maximum. This is because, Patel highlighted that every year if there is an 8,000 to 10,000 kind of points jump in Sensex, going by that then it will take 3 to four years definitely for the 1 lakh mark.

Here are some key pointers from the interview:

Any upside-down side risks in the market? Patel said, " I don't think so there is any, you know kind of downside, if you see the World Market you know after the Israel war or Russia Ukraine we did correct it to some extent but later on after two to 3 months, we bounced back even in Covid we did the same thing so I don't think any downside risk as of now." He added, but yes if you see in terms of the interest rate, if interest rates are not going to decrease in this particular year then that might be that one kind of downside risk in this particular year. Overall, Patel is bullish on the Indian stock market.

Potential upside in Nifty after Lok Sabha elections? Patel said, see what has happened is that since the last one and a half months, the market has already discounted everything even the election results most people know that BJP will win so approximately, "we are hovering near 22,000 and maximum upside in 2024 in Nifty maybe around 23,500 or even 24,000 to some extent. He added, yes, there is a correction pending but this kind of Correction is expected just you know after the election result everything is cooling down then then only we can expect some correction in the Indian market.

On the Interim Budget, Patel said that the Finance Minister has already stated that this particular budget is interim so no major announcement will be made but overall yes to some extent I see that some smaller kind of announcement can be done in terms of tax and GST maybe, so overall the volatility will be there in Market but not major volatility.

What will propel India's economy to become the third-largest in the world? Patel said, the most important thing to focus on is fiscal discipline so that will be the main thing which will profile our economy as the third largest in this particular interim budget but overall yes this will take time, just like as we discussed about Sensex that 1 lakh mark will be done in 3 to four years so this will also take three to four years or even five years.

Expectations for any welfare schemes in the Budget? Patel expects three to four welfare schemes to be announced in this Budget. This year he expects welfare schemes like Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi, Swachh Bharat and MGNREGA.

On the stance of the Interim Budget, Patel said that the Stance will be basically on vote on account of the budget, so the central government is likely to Target the fiscal deficit at 5.3% of GDP that will be the particular stance. And, we expect they are going to focus on the agricultural sector and the overall FMCG sector.

On external factors that may influence sentiments in the Indian market, Patel said, apart from the election the one thing that may impact is the US inflation, if the fed is you know not able to decrease the interest rate or on the contrary, it may even also increase if inflation is getting higher so that will be one factor and secon second will be the situation in war if an un-expected thing happens then definitely that will affect the stock market.

On RBI's policy rates outcomes, Patel said, if we are talking about India then definitely I'm very confident that this particular year, RBI may try to decrease interest rate but in terms of the United States, Fed might be saying that they will continue to take any hawkish stance this year but we cannot rely on FOMC as far as India is concerned so yes I'm bullish on our Market.

On Fed rates cut this year, Patel said it is very difficult to predict. But in regards to India, he also agreed that the central bank has also kept saying that inflation will be transitory for a very long time and then it was not transitory but sustainable for like three to four years and then they started raising rates, which also the same thing that happened in Europe as the ECB kept saying it's transitory and now they said that they will keep rates higher for longer. Thereby, Patel said overall, central banks have kept changing their statements over the years but he added, "I think India is in a much better place."

He lastly said India is well positioned if you see across the globe because we have many other things which the other people don't have just like you know the working youth age group. He believes India is well-placed globally. He added, "I'll say again that I am bullish on India if you compare other stock markets."