IMD Monsoon 2026 Forecast: Below Normal Rainfall Predicted for India This Season

The India Meteorological Department has released its first official estimate for the 2026 southwest monsoon, and it's a concern for farmers, reservoirs, and the economy.

Post the press conference today, IMD released its first long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon season from June to September, predicting below normal rainfall over the country as a whole.

Quantitatively, IMD has forecast that the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall will be 92% of the Long Period Average or LPA, with a model error of ±5%. The LPA of monsoon seasonal rainfall for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

In practical terms, this means India is likely to receive around 80 cm of rainfall against the benchmark of 87 cm, a shortfall of approximately 7 cm over the four-month season.

The below-normal forecast is not uniform across the country. IMD's outlook shows a clear divide:

Below-normal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country, including large areas of central and western India the agricultural lands

Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in Parts of Northeast India, Northwest India & the South Peninsular India
This means that the impact on agriculture, water bodies, and groundwater recharge will be different from state to state.

The Biggest Risk to This Season: The El Nino Factor

The single most important reason behind this below-normal forecast is the expected development of El Nino, the climate phenomenon that historically suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall.

According to IMD's official assessment, ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely during April to June 2026. The El Niño conditions are very likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season itself, meaning the threat grows stronger precisely when India needs the rains the most.

The second half of the monsoon season, from August and September, is expected to bear the brunt of El Nino's suppressive effect.

This means that the monsoon may arrive on time and appear normal in June, but weaken progressively through July, August, and September when standing Kharif crops like paddy, pulses, and oilseeds are at their most water-intensive stage.

Impact of Below Normal Monsoon for India

A below-normal monsoon which is defined as rainfall between 90% and 95% of LPA has big consequences across sectors:
Agriculture will be worst hit as Kharif sowing across 120 million hectares could be impacted, particularly in central and western India. Crops like paddy, sugarcane, cotton, and pulses are most vulnerable to a rainfall deficit in July-September.
Reservoir storage levels across major river basins could end the season below comfortable levels, affecting both drinking water supply and rabi crop irrigation in winter.

A below-normal monsoon historically pushes up vegetable, pulses, and cereal prices - adding further pressure to an economy already dealing with rising energy costs from the Iran war and rising global commodity prices.

Hydropower generation could be impacted in deficit rainfall regions, increasing dependence on coal and thermal power at a time of energy cost stress.