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India growth outlook: IMF says Super El Nino risks have not yet materialised
The IMF says weather-related risks such as the Super El Nino have not yet affected India, which it continues to view as a key driver of global growth. However, it warned lower crop yields and food price inflation could weaken household purchasing power. The IMF will reassess India's growth outlook in its January World Economic Outlook update.
The IMF said India’s economy remained a key driver of global growth, even as it watched risks from severe weather. The fund said the effects of events like the Super El Nino had not shown up in India yet. It still flagged possible damage through weaker farm output and higher food prices.
/img/2026/10/imf-says-super-el-nino-risks-not-yet-hitting-india-growth-outlook-1793292014408-600x338.jpg "IMF: India growth risks monitored")
At a press conference, IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack said these threats were on the radar, but had not affected current conditions. "So these are risks that we see that India faces, but right now those risks have not materialised,\" Kozack said. The IMF said these risks could reduce household purchasing power.
IMF India growth projections and January WEO update
Kozack said the IMF would review its India forecasts in its next World Economic Outlook update. The reassessment is planned for January, after clearer signs on the weather impact emerge. \"So, we see it really as a risk going forward, and of course depending on whether that risk materialises, we will reassess our growth projections for India the next time in our January WEO update,\" Kozack said.
The IMF earlier raised India’s growth estimate for fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028. It moved both years to 7 per cent, compared with 6.4 per cent and 6.7 per cent in July. The updated numbers were published in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report released in Bangkok.
IMF India growth outlook, domestic demand and services activity
Kozack said the 7 per cent forecast relied on strong local conditions. The IMF cited solid domestic demand and firm services activity as major supports. \"But for now what we see is quite strong growth momentum in India, and it continues to be an engine of growth,\" the IMF official said.
The IMF said risks from the Super El Nino could still affect the outlook later. It listed lower crop yields and a rise in food price inflation as key channels. The fund said it would wait for more evidence before changing projections, while noting India’s momentum remained strong for now.
With inputs from PTI
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