Indias Building Sector Emissions Set to Exceed Carbon Budget, Hinder Net-Zero Goal

A recent report has revealed that India's buildings sector is projected to emit a staggering 90.85 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2020 and 2070 under a business-as-usual scenario. This concerning projection surpasses the carbon budget allocated for the entire country, posing a significant challenge to India's net-zero emissions goals.

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Balancing Development and Emissions Reduction

India faces the daunting task of achieving net-zero emissions while simultaneously pursuing developmental aspirations. The country aims to strike a delicate balance between fulfilling its developmental goals and curbing greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Carbon Budget and India's Fair Share

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the remaining global carbon budget from 2020 onwards for a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is 500 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent. Climate Equity Monitor calculates India's fair share of this global budget to be approximately 89 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent.

Buildings Sector's Contribution to Emissions

Currently, India's buildings sector accounts for a substantial 25% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions. This figure is expected to rise further as the majority of buildings that will exist in India over the next three decades are yet to be constructed.

Net-Zero Pathways for India's Buildings Sector

A study conducted by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) employed a system dynamics model to develop net-zero pathways for India's buildings sector. The findings indicate that under a business-as-usual scenario, cumulative emissions from buildings between 2020 and 2070 are projected to exceed India's carbon budget by 2%.

Impact of Developmental Goals

The researchers highlight that achieving "decent living standards" will further increase emissions. Developmental goals such as providing housing and clean cooking for all by 2030 could lead to cumulative emissions exceeding the carbon budget by 8%.

Potential for Emissions Reduction

The study identifies interventions that can significantly reduce emissions in the buildings sector. The buildings-led scenario (BLS), which focuses on behavioral changes such as adopting cleaner cooking fuels and energy-efficient appliances, can reduce annual embodied emissions by 16% and annual operational emissions by 69%.

Role of Industries and Power Sector

The report emphasizes the crucial role of industries and the power sector in decarbonizing the buildings sector. Indirect emissions from building materials and electricity consumption account for a significant portion of total sectoral emissions. Industries, particularly cement, steel, and brick manufacturing, have the potential to reduce up to 59% of emissions.

Integrated Scenario and Carbon Capture Technologies

The integrated scenario (BLS+ILS) combines interventions in the buildings sector with those in the industry and power sectors. This scenario projects a substantial 72% reduction in emissions and a 47% reduction in energy demand by 2070, resulting in savings of 1.83 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent. However, even with aggressive decarbonization, emissions from the buildings sector do not reach net-zero levels.

Experts suggest that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are essential for achieving net-zero emissions, particularly in industrial sectors. However, some experts raise concerns about the high cost and unproven nature of CCS technology, arguing that it diverts attention from global decarbonization efforts.

Challenges and Opportunities

Ritu Mathur, Senior Energy Economist at NITI Aayog, highlights the importance of scaling up data and enabling green skilling to enhance action on the ground. She emphasizes the need to collate technology-based innovations, nature-based solutions, and success stories to leverage their benefits.

Shriti Pandey, Founder and CEO of Strawcture Eco, dispels the myth that using nature-based materials for building is expensive. She asserts that these materials are affordable, locally sourced, and provide thermal comfort within buildings while reducing the carbon footprint.

India's buildings sector faces significant challenges in achieving net-zero emissions, but there are also opportunities for substantial emissions reductions through various interventions. Balancing developmental aspirations with climate goals will require a concerted effort from all stakeholders, including industries, the power sector, policymakers, and individuals.