India monsoon forecast: IMD warns below-normal June–September rains as El Nino may return

India is expected to see below normal rainfall in the 2026 southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday. The June to September rains support farming and water supplies nationwide. The IMD linked the outlook to possible El Nino conditions returning in June after three years.

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The IMD projected about 80 cm of rain during June to September. The long-period average for 1971-2020 is 87 cm. At a press briefing, M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology of the IMD, said, "Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92 per cent of long-period average LPA with a model error of +/- 5 per cent.\"

IMD monsoon forecast and rainfall distribution

The IMD said below normal seasonal rainfall is likely across most regions. Normal to above normal rain may occur in some parts. These areas include the Northeast, the Northwest, and South Peninsular India. The department noted the uneven spread can affect reservoirs and irrigation needs differently across states.

The IMD issues its first monsoon rainfall forecast around mid-April. It then releases an updated forecast in the last week of May. These updates are watched closely by farmers and planners. The monsoon delivers about 75 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, supporting drinking water and hydropower generation.

IMD monsoon forecast linked to El Nino and ENSO

The IMD said one reason for lower rainfall could be El Nino conditions. Climate models indicate El Nino is likely to emerge around June. El Nino refers to warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can shift weather patterns worldwide and often weakens monsoon winds over India.

The department said weak La Nina conditions are shifting towards ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. La Nina usually cools global average temperatures for a short period. The IMD also listed past El Nino years since 2000. These conditions emerged in 2002, 2009, and 2015.

IMD monsoon forecast and Indian Ocean Dipole outlook

Climate models also suggest positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions may develop in the second half of the season. Positive IOD can increase rainfall over India. Dr Mohapatra said, \"So, we expect that this will counter the impact of El Nino during the second half of the monsoon season.\"

Dr Mohapatra also pointed to snow conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. The snow cover area from January to March was slightly below normal compared with last year. The IMD said winter and spring snow extent has an inverse link. Lower snow cover can relate to higher later monsoon rainfall.

The monsoon remains critical because agriculture still relies on seasonal rain. Nearly 64 per cent of Indians depend on agriculture for livelihoods. Only about 55 per cent of the net sown area has irrigation cover. The main rain-bearing system also refills reservoirs, shaping water availability through the year.

With inputs from PTI