India GDP FY26 Estimates: India’s GDP Growth Rate Expected At Two Year High of 7.4%

India GDP FY26 Growth Data: India's real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow by 7.4% in the financial year 2025-26, as per the First Advanced Estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) on Wednesday, January 7.

The strong GDP growth is expected to be driven by buoyant growth in services sector and resilient economic expansion.

India's GDP in FY26 is propelled by buoyant growth in services sector. Additionally, financial, real estate, professional, services, public administration, defence services, and other services in the tertiary sector have been estimated to attain a substantial growth in the duration.

The data also shows Real Gross Value Added growth of 7.3 per cent in FY 2025-26, powered mainly by a robust services sector, while Nominal GDP at current prices is estimated to rise 8.0 per cent, reflecting both higher real activity and a moderate price impact across the economy.

Real GDP Growth FY26 Driven by Services Sector

The services sector continues to lead overall activity, with Real GVA growth supported by strong expansion in Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services, along with Public Administration, Defence and Other Services, where the combined growth rate at constant prices is estimated at 9.9 per cent in FY 2025-26.

Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting are expected to record 7.5 per cent growth at constant prices, showing continued recovery in contact-intensive and logistics-linked services, which together form a major part of the tertiary sector's contribution to national output and employment generation during the year.

Key Factors Contributing Budget Estimates

India's budget estimate for FY26 is based on key indicators like industrial production, corporate financial results, agricultural output, tax collections, and trade data available up to November 2025. The second advanced estimates for financial year 2025-26 will be released on February 27.

How Will India GDP FY26 Estimate Impact Budget?

The first advance estimates for GDP for FY26 would offer the earliest official projection on annual growth. The available data will also offer the basis for key calculations in the Union Budget 2026-27 which will be presented in February this year. The GDP Growth FY26 data will form the basis for key calculations on the Budget 2026, including fiscal deficit, spending and debt ratios.

The First Advance Estimates present a consolidated picture of Real and Nominal GDP and GVA levels, along with corresponding growth rates, allowing comparison between FY 2024-25 Provisional Estimates and FY 2025-26 projections across constant and current price measures for headline macroeconomic indicators.