Fourth Quarter GDP 2021-22 Expected To Range Between 2.7%-4.5%: Analysts

Today the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is scheduled to release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of Q4 of 2021-22 and several analysts have already projected India's expected GDP for Q4 which is likely to remain lower than Q3.

Earlier, India's CMP inflation surged to 7.79 percent for the month of April due to surging fuel and food prices. Several analysts have projected the India's GDP data amid surging inflation and rising geo-political tensions caused by Russia-Ukraine war.

1. SBI Research

It believes growth to remain at 2.7% for Q4 of 2021-22 as GDP data projection for the current period has been clouded by several uncertainties prevailing. SBI Research has projected GDP growth for FY22 at 8.5% and for Q4FY22 at 2.7%.

2. ICRA

Leading credit rating agency has also come out with its numbers. It expects that the year-on-year (YoY) growth in GDP may have moderated to 3.5 in Q4, FY 2022 from 5.4 registered in the Q3 of FY 2022 as a result of surging commodity prices, dip in wheat yields and setbacks in recovery of contact-intensive services. "We expect both agriculture and industry to post a sub-1 per cent GVA (gross value added) growth in Q4 FY2022, whereas services growth is expected to print at around 5.4 per cent in that quarter," added ICRA.

3. CRISIL

It expects that India's GDP is likely to grow at 4.5% in the Q4 of the last financial year.

4. Reuters

India's GDP growth is likely to remain at 4% for January to March quarter, according to Reuters poll of 46 economists and it has come fown from 5.4% growth registered in Q4 FY2021.