India per capita income in states may reach high-income levels by 2046-47, RBI’s Poonam Gupta says

Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said average per capita income across Indian states could near high-income thresholds by 2046-47. The outcome depends on keeping growth patterns seen over the past two decades. Gupta said below-median states were expected to add a large share of future gains. The Reserve Bank of India uploaded the speech on its website on Monday.

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Gupta delivered the remarks at the Columbia Indian Economy Summit 2026. The event took place at the Raj Centre on Indian Economic Policy at Columbia University last month. Gupta said India’s economic story pointed to broad-based progress across states. Gupta also urged states to use policies suited to local conditions. These steps could help speed up income gains.

Per capita income growth and high-income thresholds by 2046-47

Gupta said India’s long-run growth had strengthened since the early 1980s. Average real GDP growth rose from 5.7 per cent in the 1980s. It moved to 5.8 per cent in the 1990s. It then increased to 6.3 per cent in the 2000s. It reached 6.6 per cent in the 2010s.

Gupta said growth in the most recent four-year period reached 7.7 per cent. Gupta added that per capita income showed a sharper rise. It was about USD 274 in 1981 and USD 306 in 1991. It later climbed close to 10 times to around USD 2,700 in 2024. Gupta said early doubling took over two decades.

Gupta said per capita income then rose almost fivefold in the following two decades. Gupta said this showed a structural shift in growth momentum. IMF projections were also cited from the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. These forecasts put per capita income at USD 3,051 in 2026. The same outlook projected USD 4,346 for 2030.

State per capita income and broad-based prosperity across states

Gupta said states were becoming more prosperous than before. Gupta said every state recorded a major rise in per capita GSDP over two decades. This suggested progress was nationwide, not limited to a few regions. Gupta said the pattern held in US dollar terms. Gupta also said it held in constant rupee terms after inflation.

Gupta said average per capita incomes across states rose nearly fivefold in current US dollars. Gupta said the rise was more than threefold in constant rupees. Gupta said some states became five to ten times more prosperous. Other states saw smaller gains of around three times. Gupta linked outcomes to starting prosperity levels.

Gupta said richer states saw faster per capita income growth than poorer states. Gupta said this meant state incomes were not converging. Gupta said the past trend had not reversed. Prosperity is both Indias ambition and its destiny. The central question is no longer whether India will prosper, but how quickly, how broadly, and how equitably that prosperity would be shared across its states and its people, she said.

State-specific growth strategies and national macroeconomic policy levers

Gupta said the pace of income divergence had weakened over time. Gupta said the growth gap between richer and poorer states narrowed across decades. Gupta also said convergence was faster across many welfare indicators. Gupta said lagging states were catching up on wellbeing. Gupta added that wellbeing distribution was becoming more equal across India.

Gupta said reaching the 2046-47 possibility would need focused choices by states. Gupta said states should use growth strategies based on local strengths. Gupta said plans should reflect structural realities and development stages. Gupta also noted many macroeconomic policies were set nationally. These included monetary policy and financial sector regulation.

Gupta said state governments had a different set of policy tools. Gupta said these tools were still important for economic outcomes. Gupta said strengthening these levers within a holistic framework mattered. Gupta said this could lift prosperity growth in each state. Gupta said stronger state gains would also raise the national average over time.

With inputs from PTI