Stock Market Outlook Today, 4 August: Sensex, Nifty Likely To Extend Gains Ahead of RBI MPC Policy Decision

Sensex and Nifty are expected to trade with a positive bias on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, after extending gains in the previous session on the back of easing crude oil prices, improving global risk sentiment and broad-based buying across sectors. However, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy decision due on August 5.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 4 August 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction Ahead of RBI Policy Decision

Market participants are also expected to closely track movements in Brent crude oil prices, the latest corporate earnings announcements and upcoming Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, all of which could influence investor sentiment during the week.

Indian equity benchmarks ended Monday's session on a strong note after opening with a gap-up and sustaining buying interest throughout the day. Cooling Brent crude oil prices, which slipped below the USD 85 per barrel mark, coupled with easing geopolitical tensions, improved overall market sentiment and encouraged investors to increase exposure to equities.

The rally was broad-based, with buying seen across most sectors, helping both benchmark indices finish near their intraday highs. The Nifty 50 jumped 1.60% to close at 24,774, while the BSE Sensex advanced 0.70% to settle at 78,639.

Nifty Prediction Today, 4 August 2026: What Should Traders Can Expect

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty has strengthened its technical structure after breaking out of a three-month consolidation range.

The brokerage noted that the benchmark index formed a strong bullish candle on the daily chart with a higher high and a higher low while also closing above the upper boundary of its recent consolidation range. During Monday's session, the index also tested its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating improving momentum.

Analysts believe the breakout above the triangular consolidation pattern suggests the index could extend its rally towards the 25,000-25,200 zone over the coming sessions. However, with the daily stochastic oscillator approaching the overbought region at a reading of 91, some profit booking at higher levels cannot be ruled out.

"We believe bias remain positive and dips if any in the coming sessions should be used as a buying opportunity. On the downside immediate support is placed at 24,500-24,400 levels. While key short-term support is placed at the 24,200 levels being the confluence of the key retracement of the current up move and 20 days EMA," Bajaj Broking Research.

Bank Nifty Outlook for Tuesday

Bank Nifty also extended its upward momentum, forming a strong bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low while comfortably closing above the psychologically important 58,000 mark.

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the banking index has spent the past seven weeks consolidating within the 56,500-58,700 range. A decisive breakout above the upper end of this range at 58,700 could trigger fresh buying interest and open the door for an advance towards the 59,300 and 60,000 levels in the coming sessions.

However, if the index fails to sustain above 58,700, Bank Nifty could continue to trade within the 57,000-58,700 range until a clear breakout emerges.

"On the downside, the 56,500-56,000 zone remains a crucial support area. This region is reinforced by the confluence of the lower band of the six-week trading range, an ascending trendline, and the 52-week EMA, making it a strong demand zone. As long as the index holds above this support cluster, the broader outlook is expected to remain constructive," said the brokerage.

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