Market! Trump Fuzzy After US Court's UNO Reverse: Will Sensex, Nifty See Fresh Bull After 15% Global Tariffs?

The Indian stock market traded on a bullish trend on February 23rd despite US President Donald Trump's mood swings related to his tariffs against countries. The US Supreme Court ruled against his reciprocal tariffs, which led to a series of whines from Trump, who then announced a standard global tariff of 10%, which was raised further to 15%. Despite the constant change in tariffs and Asian markets, Sensex and Nifty saw a steady performance.

Sensex, Nifty On February 23:

During the early trade of February 23, Sensex jumped by 671.44 points or 0.80% to hit an intraday high of 83,486.15. Meanwhile, Nifty 50 climbed by 200.2 points or 0.8% to touch an intraday high of 25,771.45.

Both Sensex and Nifty have corrected from their opening performances but still traded on a bullish note. At the time of writing, Sensex traded at 83,147.21, up by 329.82 points or 0.40%, while Nifty 50 surged by 100.35 points or 0.4% to trade at 25,671.60. Broadly, Bank Nifty corrected to trade with mild gains and Midcap indices dropped significantly. However, smallcap stocks outperformed.

On Sensex, top gainers included Adani Ports which surged by 2.5% followed by Kotak Bank, Axis Bank, Power Grid, HDFC Bank and M&M which soared by more than 1% to 2.2%. On the other hand, top losers included Infosys in the lead with 2.06% downside, followed by Tata Steel, Eternal and Tech Mahindra who dropped by nearly 1% each.

Nifty IT index is down by 1.44%, while Nifty Media and Nifty Metal indices dropped by over 0.6% each. However, Nifty Auto and Nifty Financial Services surged sharply, but it was Nifty PSU Bank that outperformed with over 1.2% gains.

The tariffs confusion has kept Asian stocks on the edge as they traded cautiously on Monday. Chinese and Japanese market saw slim trading volumes due to Lunar New Year holidays. Hang Seng surged by nearly 3% on Monday, emerging as best performer in Asian cues, after it opened over a long-holiday week. Apart from this, Singapore's Straits Times index edged higher by 0.4%, while Australia's ASX and futures for India's Nifty 50 index fell by 0.4% to 0.5% in morning trade.

"GIFT Nifty, which surged sharply on Friday night following the US Supreme Court's decision to reject key Trump-era tariffs, has moderated in early trade today. While some profit-booking is visible after the initial spike, the broader indication still suggests a positive start for the Nifty this week, supported by improving global risk sentiment," said Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth.

But the broader consensus remains cautious due to Trump's tariffs showdown. According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, although he subsequently signed an executive order imposing a fresh 10-15% global tariff-effectively resetting tariffs on Indian exports to around 10% for now-the broader backdrop remains cautious.

But the decline in tariffs comes as a good news nonetheless.

US Supreme Court Vs Donald Trump:

The US supreme court did a uno reverse with Trump and declared many of his tariffs as illegal which comes as a good news to many countries including India and China. Trump reacted with great displeasure against all the members who voted against his tariffs policy.

Through his Truth Social, Trump said, "Those members of the Supreme Court who voted against our very acceptable and proper method of TARIFFS should be ashamed of themselves. Their decision was ridiculous but, now the adjustment process begins, and we will do everything possible to take in even more money than we were taking in before!"

Trump then went on to announce 10% tariffs on all countries, which was effective immediately from February 21. But soon after, he raised this limit to 15% reciprocal tariffs.

How Sensex and Nifty Will Be Impacted?

Explaining in detail, Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited said the Trump tariff tale has become murkier after the US Supreme Court declared the tariffs illegal. The SC judgement is, indeed, a landmark decision which will seriously impact Trump's tariff weaponisation strategy. Even the new 15 % global tariff imposed under section 122 will be challenged in courts and the probability of this decision getting annulled is high since section 122 allows the US president to impose tariffs to tackle serious Bslance of Payments crisis, and the US doesn't have a Balance of Payments crisis now.

India has already delayed the visit of its trade negotiating team to the US in the light of the changed scenario. He said, "This is welcome move."

In terms of market perspective, Vijayakumar added, "the US SC decision is indeed a positive, but this is not sufficient to trigger a sustained rally in the market. The market will see only a relief rally which is unlikely to sustain. The market will respond only to the fundamentals, which are fortunately improving."

Also, Ponmudi said, Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continue to influence crude oil prices, while President Trump's remarks about potentially exploring alternative legal routes to advance his tariff agenda reintroduce policy uncertainty. While near-term sentiment has improved, markets may remain vulnerable to intermittent bouts of volatility as geopolitical and trade developments evolve.

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