India's Coal Mining Methane Emissions Projected to More Than Double by 2029 Amid Energy Demand Surge

India's methane emissions from coal mining are projected to more than double by 2029 compared to 2019 levels. This increase is linked to the country's efforts to boost coal production to satisfy its rising energy needs, as highlighted in a recent report by the global energy think tank, Ember. The report indicates that India's coal mine methane emissions could rise by 106% since the last national estimate in 2019.

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India's Ministry of Coal is planning a major expansion in domestic coal mining to meet growing energy demands and reduce coal imports. This expansion will likely result in a significant increase in methane emissions from coal mines. High-emitting underground mining is expected to triple by 2029, surpassing 100 million tonnes annually, according to the report.

Impact of Methane Emissions

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, with over 80 times the warming effect of carbon dioxide over two decades. It has contributed to nearly a third of global temperature increases since the Industrial Revolution. India, already the world's second-largest coal producer, aims to double its production this decade, exceeding an annual rate of 1.5 billion tonnes.

Between 2010 and 2019, India's overall coal mining rose by 28%. Despite this increase, national estimates for coal mine methane emissions only grew by four percent. This was due to a shift towards shallower surface mining and the closure of older underground mines with higher gas emissions.

Energy Demand and Production Plans

India's energy demand is rapidly increasing, with coal-based power generation expected to grow from 212 GW in 2023 to 260 GW by 2031, as per the latest National Energy Policy. To address this demand, the Ministry of Coal plans to boost domestic coal production significantly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also noted earlier this year that renewable energy growth has not kept pace with power demand due to heatwaves and reduced hydropower output.

The proposed plans suggest that India's total domestic coal production could exceed 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030. Ember estimates that India could gradually reduce up to 35% of its coal mine methane emissions by that year.

Mitigation Strategies

Tackling India's coal mine methane emissions presents an opportunity to slow climate change and reduce surface ozone while complementing efforts to cut carbon dioxide emissions. "Policies to incentivise mitigation, capture, and utilisation of coal mine methane are crucial and should be prioritised with urgency," stated Rajasekhar Modadugu, Analyst Climate and Energy at Ember.

Efforts to address these emissions are essential for India's climate strategy. By implementing effective policies and technologies, India can mitigate a significant portion of its methane emissions from coal mining by 2030.