India's GDP Growth Rate At 6.2% In Q3, Economy Estimated To Quicken To 6.5% In FY25; Hit Or Miss?

India's Q3 GDP Data: India's economy grows to 6.2% for the third quarter of FY25, compared to market estimates of 6.2% to 6.3%. Surprisingly, the government has pegged a GDP growth rate of 6.5% for the entire fiscal, which is higher than RBI's target of 6.4%. The National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the key economic data on Friday, February 28.

Data from the ministry revealed that India's real GDP growth rate has been observed at 6.2% for Q3 of FY25. While the Growth rate in Nominal GDP for Q3 of FY 2024-25 has been estimated at 9.9%. The latest performance of GDP is better than the seven-quarterly low of 5.4% that was recorded in Q2FY25.

Annual Estimates and Growth Rates:

As per NSO data, real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹187.95 lakh crore in the financial year 2024-25, against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2023-24 of ₹176.51 lakh crore. The growth rate in Real GDP during 2024-25 is estimated at 6.5% as compared to 9.2% in 2023-24.

Meanwhile, nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹331.03 lakh crore in the year 2024-25, against ₹301.23 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.9%.

Further, real GVA is estimated at ₹171.80 lakh crore in the year 2024-25, against the FRE for the year 2023-24 of ₹161.51 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 6.4% as compared to 8.6% growth rate in 2023-24. Nominal GVA is estimated to attain a level of ₹300.15 lakh crore during FY 2024-25, against ₹274.13 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.5%.

Notably, the construction' sector is estimated to observe a growth rate of 8.6%, followed by the financial, Real Estate & Professional Services sector (7.2%) and the trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting sector (6.4%) during 2024-25.

As per the First Revised Estimates, Real GDP has grown by 9.2% in the financial year 2023-24, which is the highest in the previous 12 years except for the financial year 2021-22 (the post-covid year). This growth has been contributed by double-digit growth rates in the 'Manufacturing' sector (12.3%), the 'Construction' sector (10.4%) and the 'Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services' sector (10.3%).

Moreover, as per the Final Estimates, Real GDP has observed a growth rate of 7.6% in the financial year 2022-23, mainly contributed by double-digit growth rates in the 'Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting' sector (12.3%), 'Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services' sector (10.8%) and 'Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services' sector (10.8%).

In the February 2025 monetary policy, RBI has predicted real GDP growth for 2025-26 at 6.7%, with a Q1 growth rate of 6.7 per cent; Q2 at 7.0 per cent; and Q3 and Q4 at 6.5 per cent each (Chart 1). The risks are evenly balanced.