Inflation To Cool Off From Q4Fy23; Will Remain Above RBI's Tolerance Band For 3 Straight Quarters

Retail inflation in the country is expected to remain outside the tolerance band of the RBI (2-6%), said Deputy Governor Michael Patra today (June 24) in his first public address highlighting the RBI's impending failure to attain its inflation-fighting goals.

"It is not about failure, it is about credibility of monetary policy which must be preserved," Patra iterated at a PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry event in New Delhi. "Monetary policy should be accountable to the public without any escape clauses," he added.

He further goes on to say that economic growth is without doubt impaired if inflation remains above 6%. Also, he mentions that there are cues which suggest that inflation is peaking. As per him, inflation will come within the RBI's targeted levels by the fourth quarter of Fy23 and fall further as we head to Fy24.

Amid global inflationary crisis , it is better to look at change rather than level, says the Deputy Governor said. And it is expected that the country's apex bank will take on to a more modest monetary policy action when compared to rest of the economies.

The RBI in an off-cycle meet announced a 40 bps hike in repo rate, which was again followed by another rate hike of 50 bps. 1Basis point or 1bps is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Analysts project the repo rate to be in the range of 5.5-6% by Fy23 end.

For May, the country's retail inflation measured by CPI stood at 7.04%.