Oil prices rise as Iran-US truce weakens and Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic slows

Fresh tension between Iran and the United States raised concern on Wednesday about higher fuel costs. Traders reacted after President Donald Trump said the US ceasefire with Iran was over. The move followed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks also hit American military sites in other Gulf nations.

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Oil prices then climbed to their highest levels in weeks, adding pressure to petrol markets. A barrel of US benchmark crude traded at USD 75.80 on Wednesday. Brent crude rose close to USD 79 per barrel. Those levels marked the highest points since June 19 for Brent.

Oil prices and Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic

Tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz mostly halted, according to one analyst. "Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped, which tells you more about risk perception right now than any statement from Washington or Tehran,\" said Jorge Leon. Leon leads geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and shared the view by email.

Leon said the market remained alert to any escalation around the route. \"The market reaction highlights how sensitive prices remain to any escalation around the strait, given its role as a critical transit route for global oil flows,\" Leon said. Investors watched the strait because it is central to global oil shipments.

Fuel prices and gasoline costs after oil prices rise

US pump prices changed only slightly by Wednesday, despite the rise in crude. AAA reported an average of USD 3.80 for a gallon of regular. That was up from USD 3.79 on Tuesday. It stayed below the month-ago average of USD 4.16.

Crude oil is the biggest part of the cost of petrol, but the effect is delayed. Refiners often use oil bought earlier, which slows price changes. Fuel also moves through pipelines and trucks before reaching stations. Because of that process, drivers may not feel the full impact for weeks.

Retail prices can also lag because station owners compete for customers. Some retailers may accept lower margins instead of quick increases. Over time, sustained higher crude prices usually filter through. The earlier relief at pumps came as war-driven spikes began easing in many places.

Strategic stockpiles and oil prices during the war

The US and other countries tried to limit oil price gains by releasing emergency reserves from March. Those releases cannot continue indefinitely. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 319.5 million barrels as of July 3. The reserve was last that low in 1983, during its early build-up.

\"Unfortunately, the drawdown of strategic stocks means that there is a lot less ammunition in Trumps holster,\" said Michael Lynch. Lynch is a distinguished fellow at Energy Policy Research Institute in Amherst, Massachusetts. The reduced запас may limit options if prices rise again.

Shipping uncertainty and Strait of Hormuz safety warnings

Shipping risk assessments also shifted after the latest strikes. The US accused Iran of hitting three commercial vessels and then revoked Iran’s ability to openly sell crude oil globally. Some advisers urged caution on sending crewed ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Wider Middle East routes also faced renewed scrutiny.

International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez criticised attacks in the strait. \"As long as the safety and security of crews cannot be assured, I urge flag states, shipowners, operators and all relevant authorities to avoid exposing seafarers to unnecessary danger by transiting the strait,\" Dominguez said Wednesday. Dominguez added that the region remained volatile.

Some shipping still moved through the waterway on Tuesday, based on Kpler data. Kpler verified 41 crossings, compared with 36 on Monday. It was not clear if the crossings came before or after the strikes. Some vessels also stopped broadcasting locations while crossing, making totals harder to confirm.

Because mines blocked the central route, ships used two alternatives. One smaller northern route passed through Iranian waters. Another southern route ran through Omani waters. The three ships hit on Tuesday appeared to be using the Omani route.

Ceasefire doubts and oil prices linked to talks

Oxford Economics said the ceasefire could keep switching on and off. Ben May, the firm’s director of global macroeconomic research, raised doubts in a note. \"The question is whether the latest developments merely represent a bump in the road or if were emerging from the eye of the storm,\" May wrote. May also said Washington and Tehran could still reduce tensions.

Trump also signalled mixed messages about diplomacy. Trump said negotiations with Iran were a waste of time. Yet Trump also noted US negotiators would continue talks. That suggested the truce may not be permanently ended, even as market nerves increased.

Shipping companies and oil prices amid Middle East routes

Separate shipping decisions added to the uncertainty for trade routes. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said on Monday that their Gemini Corporation partnership would slowly resume Suez Canal services. The service had paused after Red Sea attacks by Yemen’s Houthis. Analysts warned new instability could threaten that plan.

\"Recent stability in the Middle East created the conditions for the companies decision, but the recent deterioration could put this resumption in jeopardy once again,\" said Judah Levine. Levine heads research at freight booking platform Freightos. Hapag-Lloyd later said it had assessed Red Sea security and had contingency plans if conditions worsened.

The renewed risk around the Strait of Hormuz kept energy and shipping markets on alert on Wednesday. Crude gains may feed into petrol prices over time, though changes can lag. With emergency reserves lower than before, policymakers have fewer buffers. For now, vessel safety and stable crossings remain key to easing price pressure.

With inputs from PTI