Israel election uncertainty as no clear winner emerges for Netanyahu and Eisenkot

Israelis faced days of uncertainty after a high-turnout election left no clear winner. Early results suggested tight numbers in the 120-member Knesset. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and main challenger Gadi Eisenkot both faced complex coalition maths. Another election remained possible, as talks could drag on for weeks before a leader emerged.

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The vote was the first since the Hamas Oct. 7, 2023, attack. Many voters treated it as a test of Netanyahu’s long rule. It also set out rival views for Israel’s future direction. Initial counts pointed to a split electorate, with divisions cutting across politics, identity and security.

Netanyahu election results and the path to 61 seats

Initial results showed Netanyahu’s religious and ultranationalist bloc falling short of 61 seats. The coalition had peaked at 68 seats in the previous parliament. Likud also appeared reduced from 32 seats to around 27. Still, Likud looked set to remain the largest party overall.

The figures hinted at frustration with Netanyahu’s time in office. Some voters blamed Netanyahu for the Oct. 7 attacks and the aftermath. Others objected to backing draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews during wars. Even so, Netanyahu remained best placed to get the first mandate.

To stay in power, Netanyahu would need at least one opposition party or defectors. Most rivals promised not to join Netanyahu, but positions could shift. Netanyahu could offer concessions during talks. Netanyahu could also argue that a wide coalition beats a government relying on Arab-led parties.

"Netanyahu manages to overcome situations that I cant see anyone else managing to overcome, said Tamar Hermann, senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank. Politically, he is a magician.\"

Opposition election results and Arab-led parties in coalition talks

Early results indicated that Netanyahu’s opponents together held a parliamentary majority. Yet Arab-led factions were central to that total. These parties were often sidelined in past coalition talks. Several Jewish-led parties had also refused partnerships with them over many years.

\"In the face of a politics of supremacy, racism and exclusion, we are offering a totally different alternative, Yousef Jabareen, the head of the Arab Joint List, said on X. The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership. Nothing more, nothing less.\"

Only one Arab party had ever joined a governing coalition, in 2021. That government lasted about 18 months. Distrust was higher after Oct. 7 and the wars that followed. Netanyahu was expected to label any Arab-backed coalition as illegitimate or treasonous.

If Arab parties were excluded, Eisenkot and allies lacked a clear route to unseat Netanyahu. Another election could also weaken the opposition’s leverage. Tens of thousands of Israelis flew in to vote this time. Many might not return for another poll if it was called.

Arab-led parties election results and their growing influence

Arab-led parties represented Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, about 20 per cent of the population. Many were descendants of Palestinians who remained after 1948. They could vote and sit in parliament. Despite senior roles across society, many reported discrimination and faced suspicion.

Higher Arab turnout, partly driven by anger at Netanyahu’s far-right allies, may reshape talks. Arab-led parties could win around 19 seats. That would increase their bargaining power in any Eisenkot-led deal. It could also make some Jewish parties more reluctant to join such talks.

\"With these numbers - there are too many Arabs to lean on, so to speak, said Aviv Bushinsky, a political commentator and former Netanyahu adviser. Israeli society is not ready for it, not before Oct. 7 and certainly not after it.\"

Israel election results and divisions over democracy, security and identity

The election came after years of war and did not ease deep social splits. Netanyahu’s allies backed a stronger Jewish character for the state. They supported more settlement building in the occupied West Bank. They also backed draft exemptions and sought a 2023 judiciary overhaul that sparked protests.

Eisenkot’s camp argued that Jewish identity could align with liberal democratic ideals. It promised accountability for Oct. 7 failures and pledged to strengthen the judiciary. The bloc also aimed to end draft exemptions. It said it would repair international standing harmed by the Gaza war.

Final official results were expected on Thursday or Friday. Even after certification, coalition bargaining was likely to continue for weeks. The close numbers left several outcomes open, including a unity government or a fresh vote. The initial count suggested Israel’s political and social divides remained unresolved.

With inputs from PTI