June CPI Inflation 2026: Retail Inflation Above RBI’s 4% Target, Silver Overtakes Gold As Costliest Commodity

June CPI Inflation 2026 Data: India's retail inflation, measured by consumer price index inflation (CPI), breached the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s medium-term target of 4% in June for the first time in 16 months. India's CPI Inflation data came in at 4.38% in June 2026. Meanwhile, silver overtook gold as the costliest commodity in the period, as per the Ministry of Statistics Programme and Implementation (MoSPI) data released on Monday, July 13.

India's retail inflation breached the central bank's medium-term target as higher food and fuel prices, the Iran-US war and a weak monsoon added to cost pressure. Retail inflation is measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI).

The jump in CPI inflation in June was in congruence with expectations of the adverse impact of the ripple effects of geopolitical uncertainty and El-Nino affect and the weak monsoon.

"The expected increase is less a reflection of broad-based inflationary pressures and more a consequence of ​a gradual firming in food, fuel and select services categories over recent months," Reuters quoted Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale.

Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on CPI Inflation

India's headline CPI inflation surged to 4.38% in June 2026 from 3.93% in May, which is still within the RBI's tolerance band. Geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil volatility added to imported cost pressures, noted Rajeev Sharan, Head of Research, Brickwork Ratings, while adding that the effect may moderate if West Asia crisis eases.

Core Inflation Remains Stable, Food Inflation Surge Driven By Higher Ginger, Tomato Prices

Food inflation climbed to 5.32% in June 2026. The sharp surge is driven by higher ginger and tomato prices, even as potatoes and peas stayed in deflation. Core inflation remained close to 4%, supported by soft housing and health inflation. "Over the next two quarters, inflation is likely to remain range bound at 4-4.5%, with food as the key swing factor amid uneven monsoon progress and El Niño-linked rainfall variability. Upside risks stem from a potential crude rebound and sustained bullion strength, while a favourable monsoon could ease food prices and support continued RBI accommodation," he added.

CPI Inflation in May

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, also known as retail inflation, jumped to 3.93% in May. Silver jewellery, tomato, gold/diamond/platinum jewellery, ginger, raisin, kishmish and monacca remained among top five items with high inflation at All India combined level in May. Potato, peas, motor car and jeep, Cumin (Jeera), motor cycle and scooter, are among the top five items with low inflation in May, as per MoSPI's provisional data.