Modi-Trump Talks: What’s At Stake For India?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to the US on February 13, 2025, marks a key moment in the deepening partnership between the two nations. As an "official working visit," it positions Modi as the fourth foreign leader to be hosted at the White House since President Donald Trump assumed office on January 20, 2025.

Immigration/Deportation

One of the critical issues expected to be discussed during Modi's visit is the treatment of Indian nationals facing deportation. The US recently deported a group of 104 Indian undocumented immigrants, with another 800 individuals expected to be sent back soon. India has expressed concerns over the alleged mistreatment of its citizens and is seeking formal assurances from Washington.

Currently, there are approximately 725,000 Indian immigrants in the US, with around 20,000 facing deportation. Additionally, Modi's visit will ensure that legal pathways for Indian students, professionals, and tourists remain accessible and efficient.

Tariffs on Trade

Trade tariffs have been a long-standing tension between India and the US. Trump has imposed duties on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China and has labelled India a "tariff king" and an "abuser" of trade policies. In 2018, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports, with no exemptions for any country. This move has raised concerns among Indian businesses about higher domestic steel prices and potential losses in the US market.

In response, India has already reduced tariffs on high-end motorcycles and electric batteries ahead of Modi's visit. A pragmatic approach from New Delhi would involve negotiating a trade agreement that ensures mutual benefits through lower tariffs and increased market access.

The two leaders are also expected to discuss defence cooperation and expanded military spending. Indian officials have confirmed that domestic companies are in talks to boost purchases of American liquefied natural gas (LNG). Additionally, India is considering further tariff reductions on key American exports, including bourbon and pecans, which are major products from Republican strongholds.

India's Relationship with China and the US

India holds a unique strategic position in US foreign policy-it is neither viewed as a direct threat like China nor as a traditional ally like the UK or Japan. Unlike China, which Washington sees as a geopolitical rival, India is treated as a valuable partner in maintaining regional stability.

This distinction is reflected in the US's relatively neutral stance toward India, avoiding the type of criticism it often directs at allies it perceives as not "pulling their weight".

The strong personal rapport between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump fostered through continued visits to each other's countries, is expected to influence their upcoming meeting. Both leaders share similar views on China and radical Islam as major threats. They are also known for their strong leadership styles and economic nationalism. Their connection began with Modi's visit to Houston for the "Howdy Modi" event in September 2019, followed by Trump's trip to Ahmedabad in February 2020.