Monsoon Arrival in Kerala Delayed Again; Check Expected Onset Date; IMD Flags Below-Normal Rainfall Risk

The southwest monsoon, the lifeline of India's agriculture sector, has yet to make its official entry into Kerala despite earlier forecasts indicating an onset by late May. As meteorologists track its progress toward southern India, concerns are mounting over the broader monsoon outlook, with forecasts suggesting below-normal rainfall pointing to a strengthening El Nino that could influence weather patterns.

Monsoon Arrival in Kerala Delayed Again; IMD Expects Onset Within Next 3-4 Days; Check Projected Dates

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier projected the monsoon's onset over Kerala around May 26. However, despite favourable cloud formations and increased pre-monsoon rainfall activity, the weather system has yet to meet all the official criteria required for a formal declaration of monsoon onset.

According to the latest forecasts, the southwest monsoon is now expected to advance into parts of Kerala and neighbouring Tamil Nadu within the next three to four days. Weather experts say the monsoon is effectively hovering near Kerala's coastline, supported by strong moisture inflow from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, but widespread and sustained monsoon rainfall has not yet established itself across the state.

Why Is Monsoon in India Arriving Late This Year?

Meteorologists attribute the delay to a combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have prevented the monsoon circulation from strengthening sufficiently over southern India.

While Kerala has witnessed frequent pre-monsoon showers in recent days, officials say these rains do not qualify as the widespread and consistent rainfall pattern needed to officially mark the beginning of the southwest monsoon season.

The delayed onset comes at a time when forecasters are increasingly cautious about the overall performance of this year's monsoon. In its second-stage long-range forecast released last week, the IMD projected all-India seasonal rainfall at around 90 percent of the long-period average during the June-September period, indicating below-normal rainfall and increasing the risk of drought conditions in several regions.

IMD Weather Alert! Heavy Rain, Thunderstorm Warnings Issued for Kerala

Even though the official onset remains pending, several districts in Kerala are expected to experience heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds over the coming days.

Yellow Alert in Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Thrissur & Other Districts

Yellow alerts have been issued for multiple districts including Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad and Kannur, where widespread rainfall and isolated intense spells are likely.

The alert zones are expected to expand and shift slightly on June 2, with districts such as Idukki and Palakkad also forecast to receive heavy showers. Local authorities have advised residents living in landslide-prone and low-lying areas to remain vigilant as weather conditions remain unstable.

The approaching monsoon has also led to deteriorating sea conditions along India's southwest coast.

Authorities have extended restrictions on fishing activities across Kerala and Lakshadweep until June 4 as strong winds and rough seas continue to affect large parts of the Arabian Sea. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea until conditions improve.

Weather agencies are monitoring multiple low-pressure systems and wind patterns over both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal that could influence the monsoon's further progress over the Indian mainland.

El Nino Threat Looms Over Monsoon Outlook

Beyond the delayed onset, climate experts are increasingly focused on the potential impact of a developing El Nino event later this year.

Forecast models suggest that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could strengthen significantly from July onward, potentially disrupting rainfall patterns and contributing to above-normal temperatures across much of India.

Historically, El Nino conditions have been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and prolonged dry spells. Rising temperatures combined with below-normal rainfall could increase the risk of drought, heatwaves and water stress in several regions.

Climate scientists expect heatwave conditions to persist across large parts of northern, central and southern India, stretching from Uttar Pradesh to Tamil Nadu, particularly if El Nino intensifies during the second half of the monsoon season.

Can the Indian Ocean Dipole Offset the El-Nino Impact?

Meteorologists are also closely tracking the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another key climate driver that influences India's rainfall patterns.

Current forecasts indicate that the IOD is likely to remain largely neutral during the early phase of the monsoon before potentially turning positive around September. A stronger positive IOD could enhance rainfall activity over southern India and the west coast, partially offsetting the drying effects of El Nino.

If such a shift occurs, states like Kerala could receive additional rainfall support during the latter part of the monsoon season.

How Could El Nino Impact India's Rainfall, Agriculture and Temperatures This Year? Check Historial Trends

Climate records show that India has experienced 17 El Nino events over the past 75 years, with more than half resulting in below-normal monsoon rainfall.

Some of the most significant El Nino years affecting India include 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98 and 2015-16, periods that were marked by weak monsoons, elevated temperatures and stress on agriculture and water resources.

Several climate experts have warned that if current projections materialise, the 2026 monsoon season could rank among the driest in decades. There are also concerns that the evolving climate pattern could contribute to exceptionally high global temperatures in 2027.

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