Moody’s Downgrades Global Sovereign Rating Outlook To “Negative” For 2020

On Monday, international rating agency Moody's downgraded its global sovereign outlook for 2020 to 'negative' from 'stable' on a possible slowdown in growth due to disruptive and unpredictable world politics that have increased risk of economic and financial shocks.

Since the last week, the agency has not only downgraded its sovereign ratings on India but on other major economies like Britain, South Africa, Mexico, Turkey and Hong Kong.

Moody's said that unpredictable politics and trade wars weaken open and commodity-exporting economies.

The increasingly antagonistic environment is also likely going to damage global and national institutions, which together with lower growth, raises the probability of crises but reduces the capacity to deal with them, said the agency in its report that analyzes 142 countries and their sovereign debt of $63.2 trillion.

"There are few silver linings, and a rising risk of more negative outcomes," it added.

While the starkest example on the unpredictable economic and financial environment remains the US-China trade spat, tensions diminishing growth have also risen in the Gulf, between Japan and Korea, India and Pakistan, the US and the European Union, the EU and Britain.

Moody's has now forecasted growth in G20 group of nations to stay at 2.6 percent for 2020. In 2018, growth was seen at 3 percent.

It said that the economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, Ireland, Vietnam, Belgium, Czech Republic and Malaysia will face a slowdown as they are highly reliant on trade growth through their global supply chains.

Meanwhile, countries like Lebanon, Mongolia, Tunisia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Argentina and Turkey, that are faced with challenges of large current account deficits and are reliant on external capital, are exposed to risks of financial shocks.