Nestle India Q4FY26 Preview: Maggie Maker Eyes 13.7% Q4 Growth After 45% Profit Jump in Q3; Margins May Shrink

FMCG Giant Nestle India is going to announce its Q4 FY26 earnings report on April 21 as per an exchange filing.

After a solid performance in the last quarter, the company is expected to deliver a strong topline performance in the fourth quarter of FY26, due to strong volume recovery across key categories such as Maggi noodles and coffee.

According to estimates by Systematix Institutional Equities, the FMCG major is likely to report revenue of Rs. 62,598 million in Q4FY26, with a solid 13.7% YoY growth. This surge is mainly because of nearly 9% volume growth and an additional 5% contribution from pricing and product mix improvements.

Maggi, Coffee Lead Double-Digit Volume Growth

Nestle India's growth story this quarter is being powered by its core brands. Maggi noodles and coffee are expected to have posted double-digit volume growth, due to strong consumer demand and benefits from GST-led grammage adjustments. The chocolates segment is also likely to see robust traction, all thanks to seasonal demand during weddings and festive gifting.

However, not all segments are expected to shine. The infant nutrition category is still lagging due to ongoing demand challenges and competitive pressures.

Strong Sequential Recovery, But YoY Margins Shrink

The systematic report also mentioned that, on a sequential basis, Nestle India's profitability may see improvement. EBITDA is projected to rise 23.5% QoQ, with margins recovering to 23.7% from 21.2% in Q3FY26.

That said, the year-on-year picture tells a different story. EBITDA margins are expected to contract by 151 basis points compared to 25.2% in Q4FY25. The pressure comes from two major factors: persistent input cost inflation and higher spending on advertising, marketing, and distribution expansion.

While coffee prices (robusta) have dropped significantly down 10.6% QoQ and 26.9% YoY, other cost pressures are still there. Palm oil prices have risen 8.1% QoQ, and crude-linked packaging inputs like HDPE have surged 14.6% QoQ,canceling out the benefits of cheaper farm commodities.

Nestle India Q4FY26 Financial Snapshot (Rs. crore)
Metric	4QFY26(Expected)	4QFY25	3QFY26	YoY	QoQ
Revenue	6,259.80	5,503.90	5,667.00	13.70%	10.50%
EBITDA	1,485.10	1,389.00	1,202.10	6.90%	23.50%
EBITDA Margin	23.70%	25.20%	21.20%	-151 bps	251bps
Adj. PAT	932.8	873.5	731.7	6.80%	27.50%

Nestle Q3 FY26 Recap: Last Quarter Report

In the previous quarter, Nestle India reported a very strong performance where the company's consolidated net profit surged around 45% YoY to Rs. 998 crore, while revenue from operations rose 18.6% to Rs. 5,667 crore. On a standalone basis, profit after tax came in even higher at Rs. 1,018 crore, marking a 46% YoY jump. The FMCG major also rewarded shareholders with an interim dividend of Rs. 7 per share.

Valuation Remains Premium, Upside Limited

Systematix has maintained a 'Hold' rating on the stock, with a target price of Rs. 1,285, implying a modest upside of about 5%.

Looking ahead, the brokerage firm said, "Nestle India is expected to maintain a balanced growth, with revenue projected to grow at a CAGR of around 10% between FY25 and FY28. Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to grow at approximately 9.2% over the same period."

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