Oil Prices Can Fall Below $106-107 For Brent: Emkay Wealth Management Thinks

The oil prices have been highly volatile this year, and the prices can fall further. This is good news for the common citizens, as the oil prices are influencing the other consumer-good prices globally. The present fall in oil prices has been a result of a record increase in US crude production. It has reached 12 million barrels per day, which is the highest level since 2020.

However, the crude prices are highly low now to concern the commodity investors. Since the east European war between Russia and Ukraine, the prices started to thrive and impacted the inflation rate. According to reports, the oil rates have experienced some moderation of about 15% in the past 2 weeks.

In a recent statement, Emkay Wealth Management said, "The most crucial level for Brent is the US$ 106-US$ 107 levels, as a break of these levels could see the prices edging lower. But it may be a while before we could see these changes, though there is some activity in oil futures that seems to be indicating that some correction may be on the way."

Recently the OPEC has decided to increase its supply in July to 648,000 barrels/day, which will further impact and influence the price chart. In addition to that, the ongoing hike in the US Dollar index against the international currency majors can leave a 'more decisive impact on the future direction of prices'.

"Further, the number of active rigs has also gone up in the recent past indicating a rise in production and supply in the future. Apart from the unrest in Libya and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, there are more fundamental reasons why oil prices could moderate further. The high crude prices and the adverse impact on demand, and the estimates of an economic recession, in the view of IEA, are two factors that could matter in the medium to long term. There are certain signals that the pre-pandemic levels of oil demand which was reached in Sept-Oct 2021, may now be possible only sometime in 2023, mainly due to the negative macro developments," Emkay Wealth added.