Operation Sindoor: Kargil War, Mumbai 26/11 To Pulwama; How Nifty Fared In 5 Big Events Of India-Pakistan

Operation Sindoor: The tensions between India and Pakistan have reached a boiling point. To avenge the Pahalgam attack, the Indian army struck terrorist infrastructures in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir regions. Overall, 9 targets were hit, and that has enraged Pakistan who called the action an 'act of war'. Sensex and Nifty reacted volatile to the unfolding event.

This is not the first war-like situation between India and Pakistan. Since Independence from the British era and partition, both countries have been in a number of geopolitical events. Prior to the Pahalgam attack, India has carried out surgical strikes and even full-fledged war on five occasions since 1999. Going by history, the market has seen short-term volatility with a bearish trend, but gave strong returns on four out of five key events.

The 12-month performance after every geopolitical tension between India and Pakistan, showed that Nifty gave double-digit returns. The biggest return was delivered after Mumbai's 26/11, with Nifty gaining by nearly 82% in a span of 12 months of the occurrence of the attack.

Here's how Nifty performed in 5 major geopolitical events between India and Pakistan, as per Abhishek Jaiswal, Fund Manager at Finavenue.

"Historical data suggests that the Indian stock market has generally responded with resilience to serious geopolitical events. Except for the Parliament attack in 2001, all other incidents studied have led to positive market returns over the medium to long term," said Jaiswal.

1. Kargil War 1999:

The Kargil War was a three-month war between India and Pakistan from May to July 1999. The conflict erupted after Pakistani troops infiltrated the Kargil district of Ladakh (erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir) and other lines of control (LoC) of India, disguised as Kashmiri militants. India retaliated with 'Operation Vijay', where the Indian Army, along with the Indian Air Force, joined together to flush out the Pakistani troops and claimed victory.

The war took place from May 3 to July 26, 1999. One month before May 3, 1999, Nifty declined by 8.3%, but picked up one month later with gains of 16.50%. In 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months after May 3, Nifty gave 34.50%, 31.60%, and 29.40% returns.

2. Parliament Attack 2001:

Terrorists whose home grounds are in Pakistan have made several attempts of deadly terror attacks in India, and one such was the terror attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001.

On December 13, 2001, about five Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists attacked the Parliament House in New Delhi, taking the lives of 9 people, including Delhi police personnel, two security personnel of Parliament, and a gardener. All five terrorists were also killed. This led to a standoff between India and Pakistan from 2001 to 2002.

India accused Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), who are two terrorist groups situated in Pakistan.

Data showed that one month before December 13, Nifty surged by 10.10%, but dipped marginally by 0.8% one month after the event. However, it picked up momentum three months after the event, with an upside of 5.3%, but could not sustain the performance. Nifty dropped by 0.8% and 1.3% six months and 12 months after the event.

The Parliament Attack of 2001, was the only big event where Nifty ended bearish 12 months later, however, the downside was limited.

3. Mumbai 26/11 Attacks:

The city that never sleeps in India, Mumbai, was brought to its darkest hours when 10 members of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based Islamist militant organization, carried out a series of terrorist attacks, targeting its major tourist and popular sites on November 26, 2011.

Eight of the attacks occurred in South Mumbai at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus, the Oberoi Trident, the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower Hotel, the Leopold Cafe, the Cama Hospital, the Nariman House, the Metro Cinema, and in a lane behind the Times of India building and St. Xavier's College, as per Wikipedia. Also, explosions occurred in Mumbai's port area Mazagaon, and in a taxi that blasted in Vile Parle.

All ten terrorists were killed, with Ajmal Kasab being the last to be executed on November 21, 2012.

The market showed extraordinary resilience after this event. One month before November 26, Nifty surged by 9%, but saw short-term pullbacks with a 3.80% upside a month later of the event. 3-month performance was slightly down by 1%. However, six months later, Nifty zoomed by 54%, and 12 months later, the upside was strong by 81.90%.

4. Uri Attack & Surgical:

The Indian army entered the territory of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on September 26, after the latter's militants attacked the Indian army outpost at Uri on September 18, 2016. Eventually, Pakistan admitted to the injuries of nine, the deaths of two soldiers and capturing of one Indian soldier.

Retaliating, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government, the Indian army carried out a surgical strike against "militant launch pads" based in Pakistan, causing a significant impact on the neighbor.

After a drop of 7.3% three months later September 18, 2016, Nifty advanced by 4.30% six months later, and surged by 15.60% 12 months later of the occurrence of the event.

Pulwama Attack & Balakot 2019:

The 2019 Pulwama attack occurred on 14 February 2019, when a convoy of vehicles carrying Indian security personnel on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway was attacked by a vehicle-borne suicide bomber at Lethapora in the Pulwama district of J&K, as per Wikipedia.

Fighting back, some twelve Mirage 2000 jets of the IAF crossed the LoC and dropped bombs into the Balakot region of Pakistan. Jaish-e-Mohammed training camps were hit resulting in the death of a large number of terrorists, as per reports.

One month after February 14, Nifty continued to rise on both short-term and long-term basis. Nifty surged by 6.30% one month later of the event and gave about 12.70% returns 12 months later of the strike.

Image Source: Finavenue

Operation Sindoor 2025:

Pahalagm's attack on April 22, 2025, became the deadliest terror attack on civilians since Mumbai's 26/11 on Indian soil. The attack was carried out by five armed terrorists from lashkar-e-taiba based in Pakistan, who attacked non-Muslim tourists with the majority being Hindus in Baisaran Valley, Pahalgam of Jammu and Kashmir. At least 26 lives were lost due to this heinous crime.

Revenging the Pahalgam attack, IAF launched Operation Sindoor hitting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed. Overall, nine sites have been targeted.

After a volatile trade session, Sensex ended at 80,746.78, higher by 105.71 points or 0.13%, while Nifty gained by 34.80 points or 0.14% to end at 24,414.40.

According to the analyst, it's important to recognize that the likelihood of a full-scale war remains low. As long as such escalation is avoided, India's economic growth trajectory is unlikely to face any major setbacks.

In essence, while the initial reaction to cross-border strikes may be cautious, markets tend to recover and even thrive thereafter-reinforcing the idea that political stability, strategic decisiveness, and national security assurance are valued by investors, the analyst said.

On May 7, after Operation Sindoor, India carried Operation Abhyaas where a nationwide emergency civil defence mock drill is taking place.

FAQS About India-Pakistan Wars And Conflicts So Far:

Q1: What major conflicts have occurred between India and Pakistan since 1947?

Answer: India and Pakistan have been involved in several wars and conflicts, primarily centered around Kashmir and cross-border terrorism, including the Indo-Pakistani Wars of 1947-48, 1965, and 1971, as well as the Kargil War in 1999.

Q2: What was the primary cause of the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947-48?

Answer: The primary cause of the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947-48, also known as the First Kashmir War, was Pakistan's fear that the Maharaja of Kashmir would accede to India, leading to tribal Islamic forces attacking Kashmir and Jammu.

Q3. What was the outcome of the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971?

Answer: The outcome of the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 was the creation of Bangladesh, following the surrender of more than 90,000 Pakistani troops to Indian and Bangladeshi forces after a swift military campaign.

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