Opinions Poll: Assembly Elections Of Five States Take Centre Stage, Results On December 3; What To Expect?

Exits poll of assembly elections in five states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram has taken centre stage ahead of the outcomes on December 3rd. As per the opinion polls highlighted by Jefferies, the current ruling party BJP's performance in these state elections could be better than initial expectations, with possibilities of winning in Rajasthan. However, the Congress party is seen to give tough competition in other states.

Jefferies took an average of the seats in the assembly elections of these states. It also highlighted other opinion polls of other news channels. In its note, Jefferies said, "The opinion polls and on-the-ground feedback suggest that the BJP's performance in the upcoming state elections may be better than initial expectations (i.e. might win Rajasthan and vote share in other states better). If the latter is true, the market might see a bounce after the results announcement on the 3rd Dec."

Madhya Pradesh Exit Polls:

As per Jefferies opinion polls, in Madhya Pradesh, both BJP and Congress are seen to have neck-to-neck rivalry. Out of 230 assembly seats in this state, 116 seats are likely to be in favour of Congress, while the BJP party is expected to bag about 112 seats. Other parties may win the rest of the seats. BJP is expected to record 44% of the total votes, while Congress with 44.1%. BJP is the ruling government in Madhya Pradesh.

Other polling agencies like ABP predicts 124 seats in the belt of Congress and 105 seats in favour of BJP. Also, Times Now's poll shows 117 seats for Congress and 111 seats for BJP. However, an India TV poll shows that Congress may win 107 seats versus 119 seats by the BJP.

In the 2018 assembly elections, the Congress Party won with a majority of 114 seats compared to its rival BJP which had bagged 109 seats. However, the BJP won this election in terms of popularity. Nevertheless, 2 years later, in 2020, several MLAs resigned from the Congress party and shifted to the BJP, which led to the collapse of Kamal Nath's government and win for the BJP.

Rajasthan Exit Polls:

Here, the current ruling party is Congress, however, its reign is being challenged heavily by the BJP party. Opinion polls suggest the probability of the BJP winning in this state in 2023. Jefferies's average indicates BJP to sweep a majority of 118 seats versus 75 seats by Congress. The majority of polls expect similar outcomes. ABP's poll expects BJP to win with 119 seats and Congress to bag 72 seats, while the India TV poll predicts 115 seats won by BJP and 80 seats in favour of Congress. Times Now poll also hints at a 119-seat win for the BJP, compared to Congress which is expected to bag a mere 73 seats.

In Rajasthan, both Congress and BJP are in a riff-off for 200 assembly seats.

In 2018, Congress bagged a win with a huge 100 seats, followed by its counterpart BJP who won 73 seats, and the rest of the 27 seats belonged to other parts.

Chattisgarh Exit Polls:

Congress, who has revamped its brand to I.N.D.I.A is expected to take another win here in terms of both assembly seats and popularity. However, there could be a decline in the number of seats under the Congress regime in 2023 compared to 2018, as the BJP is likely to witness an increase in several seats and popularity too.

Jefferies poll suggests Congress win with 52 seats versus 35 seats by BJP in 2023. India TV also has similar predictions for 2023. This was not the case in the 2018 elections, where Congress outran with a clear majority of 68 seats versus BJP who at that time won only 15 seats, and the rest of the 7 seats were scattered in other parties.

In 2023, ABP poll indicates that Congress may win 48 seats, while BJP will climb the ladder to win 39 seats. Meanwhile, the Times Now poll is signalling 55 seats under Congress and 31 seats under BJP.

Here, the battle is for 90 assembly seats.

Telangana Exit Polls:

Here, the BJP party may also gain momentum, however, the opinion polls do not expect a win as the current government Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) which is led by K Chandrashekar Rao is likely to continue its regime. Nevertheless, BRS' victory would not be easy since the Congress party has seemed to gain popularity.

Jefferies poll expects BRS to win with 63 seats, followed by Congress with 42 seats and BJP along with AIMIM and others to bag 15 seats. ABP poll suggests Congress to win 49 seats, however, would not be enough to hold a regime against BRS which is likely to win 55 seats. India TV polls indicate a much larger gap between Congress and BRS with 34 seats and 70 seats respectively.

In the 2018 elections, BRS made a huge win with 88 seats against its contenders Congress who got 19 seats and others including BJP with 12 seats.

In Telangana, the parties are fighting for 119 assembly seats.

Mizoram Exit Polls:

In this state, the present ruling party Mizo National Front (MNF) is competing against Congress and the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM).

Jefferies poll indicates 19 seats in favour of MNF in 2023, while Congress to climb to hold 8 seats, and remaining parties like ZPM, BJP and others to 13 seats. ABP poll suggests similar outcomes.

In 2018, of Mizoram's 40 assembly seats, MNF won with 19 seats followed by 5 seats by Congress and 9 seats by others.

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