Pine Labs Shares Crash 9% Despite Winning Big In New UPI Charges; Buy-On-Dips? Here's Jefferies, Emkay Say

Pine Labs' share price crashed more than 9% on Wednesday despite analysts predicting the company to become one of the biggest winners of the latest UPI MDR rules. Both Jefferies and Emkay Global expect Pine Labs to win big from the new UPI charges. The investors' sentiment is volatile in Pine Labs despite higher trading volume activity in the stock on exchanges. Nonetheless, both the brokerages have recommended BUY.

Pine Labs Share Price

At the time of writing, Pine Labs stock traded at Rs 182.10 apiece on BSE, down by 6% with a market cap of Rs 21,057.91 crore. A few minutes ago, the stock had crashed by over 9.45% to hit an intraday low of Rs 175.40 apiece.

According to MarketsMojo report, Pine Labs Ltd, a notable player in the Financial Technology sector, has emerged as one of the most actively traded stocks by volume on 16 Sep 2026, registering a total traded volume exceeding 2.15 crore shares. Despite this surge in activity, the stock has experienced downward price pressure, reflecting a complex interplay of market forces and investor sentiment.

Nonetheless, the report also said that interestingly, despite the recent price softness, Pine Labs continues to trade above its key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages. This technical positioning may indicate underlying support levels and a longer-term positive trend, even as short-term fluctuations dominate trading activity.

BUY Pine Labs Stock Price?

"Pine Labs' merchant acquiring and payment acceptance franchise positions it to benefit from MDR on eligible UPI transactions. Based on our estimates, the framework could create an incremental revenue opportunity of Rs1.6 billion by FY28e, equivalent to roughly 20% of our FY28e EBIT & PAT estimates, with the magnitude of benefit dependent on transaction mix and the economics retained by acquirers within the MDR-sharing framework. We also raise our PT to Rs235 (earlier Rs180) based on 24x Sep-28 EV/ Ebit," analysts at Jefferies said in a note.

Also, analysts at Emkay Global said, "For Pine Labs, target M-cap increases to Rs278bn (target EV: Rs256 billion) and our TP by 20.9% to Rs230 (from Rs190), implying 18.1% upside."

Key risks to Emkay's estimates are the eventual interchange-sharing formula (which the circular leaves open), value leaking to merchants through competitive discounting as acquirers grapple for large-ticket flow, and elasticity at the Rs2,000 threshold.

The NCPI is introducing a 0.4% fee on Person-to-Merchant (P2M) UPI transactions above Rs 2,000. While a MDR of Rs 300 will be imposed on transaction above Rs 75,000.

The new rules will come into effect from October 15, 2026.

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