Q4 Result Preview: Multibagger PSU Metal Stock, NALCO, To Declare Q4 Result Today, What To Expect?

Q4 Result Preview: State-owned National Aluminium Company Limited (Nalco) will announce its fourth quarter result for the financial year 2024-25 on Wednesday. The metal sector PSU is expected to report flat alumina sales volumes, leading to a contraction in EBITDA and margin compared to the December quarter, according to analysts.

The Navratna PSU is estimated to report a 7.7% quarter-on-quarter increase in its net sales, according to ICICI Securities. Additionally, its profit after tax (PAT) is expected to increase by 1.3% sequentially and 119.4% annually to Rs 1587.2 crore. Here's a detailed analysis of NALCO Q4 Results Preview.

Nalco Q4 Result Preview: Lower EBITDA Contribution in Alumina

Nalco's lower EBITDA contribution from its alumina segment is likely to result in reduction in its standalone EBITDA to Rs 21.83 billion in fourth quarter against Rs 23.2 billion in the December quarter, highlighted Emkay Research in its metal sector preview.

"This is due to the recent correction in alumina prices averaging at USD537/t in Q4FY25 vs USD694/t in Q3 (down 23% QoQ). However, we note that there is typically a one-month lag in price realisation, hence the rally in Dec-24 would work favorably for Q4 earnings despite a correction later. We expect flat alumina sales volumes in Q4FY25 to 371kt vs 375kt in Q3. We estimate recurring EPS of Rs8.3 for Q4 vs Rs8.6 in Q3," noted the brokerage in its review.

Nalco Q4 Result Preview: Revenue To Increase Yearly, Decline Sequentially

Nalco's revenue is likely to grow on a year-on-year basis (YoY) due to higher Alumina and Aluminium prices, however, the revenue is likely to moderate compared to December quarter numbers as Alumina prices have corrected from the peak. Likewise, company's EBITDA is likely to surge on a yearly basis, but may decline on a QoQ basis due to lower Alumina prices and slightly higher employee costs, noted Axis Securities in its report.

The company's alumina sales volume is likely to stay at 400 kilo tonnes (kt) during the March quarter, up 6.7% from the December quarter. Its aluminium sales volume is likely to witness an 8% QoQ growth during the quarter under review, as per Axis Securities. The brokerage has indicated a contraction in Nalco's profit, revenue, sales, EBITDA margins in March quarter, compared to December quarter of FY25.

Nalco Share Price Trend

Nalco shares ended 1.57% lower at Rs 179.25 per share on BSE on Tuesday. The company scrip had touched an intraday low of Rs 178.35 apiece yesterday. Its market capitalisation stood at Rs 32,921.62 crore.

Nalco stock touched its 52-week high mark of Rs 263.10 per share on BSE on 25 November, 2024. The company stock is recovering from its 52-week low mark of Rs 140 apiece, it touched on 4 April, 2025. Its stock value has declined 16.3% year to date (YTD), but it has increased nearly 17.2% in one month. The stock value has declined nearly 10.3% in one year.