Q4 Results 2025 Preview of Metals, Mining: Tata Steel, SAIL, Hindalco To See Strong Q4; Check Top Picks

Metals and Mining Q4 Result Preview: Healthy volume growth of mainstream steel players and lower coking coal prices will lead to a decent quarter for Tata Steel and Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL). According to leading brokerages, recovery in shipments and scrap spreads at Novelis will benefit Hindalco, which posted a strong annual performance in the March quarter of the financial year 2024-25. Other metals and mining sector companies like Vedanta, Nalco, and Coal India may report soft Q4FY25 results this time.

Indian steel makers and other ferrous companies are placed in a comfortable position during the quarter under review, especially because of the provisional safeguard duty. However, non-ferrous metal may face the heat of United States President Donald Trump's tariff announcements, as mentioned by ICICI Securities in its note.

Metals And Mining Q4 Results 2025 preview

The stable prices, lower coking coal costs, project ramp-ups and strengthening spreads for ferrous defined Q4FY25 for ferrous companies, whereas higher LME aluminium and lower LME zinc (Zn) and lead (Pb) prices affected the business of non-ferrous companies, according to Emkay Global Securities.

Earnings

Due to rising aluminium prices amid the macroeconomic uncertainty, Emkay Global brokerage has declined EBITDA estimates to the tune of 4-11% for nonferrous equities. According to ICICI Securities, Novelis' EBITDA is likely to exceed USD 490 due to better scrap spread, higher recycling, and beverage can volume growth. The brokerage firm has estimated a sequential rise in EBITDA for nearly all the companies in the sector. Whereas, Tata Steel's EBITDA may decline by 6% YoY due to lower sales realisation in India and Europe, noted Axis Securities. SAIL EBITDA may increase by 73% YoY.

Sales Volume

Companies under metals and mining sector are likely to report a mixed growth in terms of sales volume growth. According to ICICI Securities, Jindal Steel and Power Limited will see an 11% annual decline in sales volume growth, whereas NALCO, APL Apollo, etc will showcase a strong growth in the metric.

Profitability

Some of the major steel makers, including Tata Steel, SAIL, SMEL, Coal India, Jindal Stainless, etc, may witness a decline in their profit after tax compared to the same quarter during a year ago period. Mining major Vedanta may witness a 117% YoY increase in PAT during the March quarter, according to ICICI Securities sector preview.

"We estimate operating profits across our metals coverage universe to expand by ~8% QoQ in 4QFY25, driven by a sequential decline in coal price amidst improved operating leverage from increased scale of operations (seasonality). Indian steel prices in 4Q exhibited divergent trends- long product prices declined by ~INR 0.2k/t, whereas flat product prices increased by ~INR 0.6k/t," noted JM Financial in its sectoral preview on Wednesday.

Brokerages' Share Price Outlook For Vedanta, SAIL, Hindalco, Tata Steel, Others

Metal, Mining Stock	ICICI Securities		Emkay Global
	Recomm.	TP	Recomm.	TP
Tata Steel	Buy	180	Buy	185
JSW Steel	Buy	1230	Add	1100
Jindal Steel	Hold	920	Reduce	825
SAIL	Hold	120	Add	120
Hindalco	Buy	765	Sell	600
Vedanta	Buy	605	Buy	550
Nalco	Add	205	Buy	225
Coal India	Buy	440	Buy	475
Gravita India	Buy	3250	Buy	2100

Tata Steel Q4 Results 2025 preview

Tata Steel's UK operations are likely to witness a widening of EBITDA loss to Rs 8083 million in the March quarter against Rs 7,350 million in Q3, however, the company may report sequentially better EBITDA of Rs 66.1 billion, said Emkay Global. Its consolidated revenue is expected to decline YoY due to lower steel price realisation in India and Europe, partially offset by higher steel sales volumes, noted Axis Securities.

SAIL Q4 Results 2025 preview

Steel Authority of India Limited is likely to witness a strong Q4 quarter as sales volume will likely recover to 4.9 MT, up 12% YoY, according to Axis Securities. The revenue is estimated to decrease by 6% YoY and improve by 7% QoQ, driven by HRC prices trajectory (down 11%/1% YoY/QoQ). EBITDA margins are likely to increase more than 70% annually primarily due to lower coking coal costs, aided by operating leverage on higher sales volumes, which offsets the drop in steel price realisation.

Coking coal prices for the upcoming quarter, KPO 2 ramp-up status, update on UK business transition, and impact of tariffs on the company's operations will remain key focus areas for the company in the next quarter. SAIL's debt is estimated to trend lower sequentially due to working capital unlocking, noted ICICI Securities.

Hindalco Q4 Results 2025 preview

Hindalco's consolidated revenue is likely to increase by 12% annually, especially due to higher aluminium prices, and EBITDA may improve by 17% annually, according to Axis Securities. Its shipment number is estimated to increase by 5.6% sequentially to 955 kt from 904 kt in Q3. There has been a 21% sequential improvement in scrap spreads especially due to uncertainty around tariffs that has pushed Midwest premiums to a high of USD850/t during Feb-Mar '25.

Vedanta Q4 Results 2025 preview

Mining major Vedanta is likely to report soft earnings in the March quarter of the financial year 2024-25. Muted earnings are likely to be driven by sequentially flat performance in its Aluminium and Zinc India businesses.

"We forecast Hindustan Zinc EBITDA at Rs45.6bn, mainly benefiting from the higher zinc volumes (up 4.9% sequentially) as well as from higher silver volumes (up 11% QoQ) and higher average silver prices for Q4 (up 1.8% to USD31.9/oz vs USD31.3/oz in Q3)," noted Emkay Global in its note on April 7.

According to ICICI Securities, Vedanta's power division may be affected by lower generation whole ESL performance may improve during the quarter. Vedanta's Q4 earnings are likely to benefit from Zinc India and Aluminiam volumes.

Coal India Q4 Results 2025 preview

Coal India may report a lower March quarter adjusted EBITDA of Rs 99 billion against Rs 104 billion in the previous quarter due to lower thermal coal prices globally. We revisit our production/offtake assumptions for FY26; beyond this, we see 5-7% cuts to earnings for FY26/27," noted Emkay Global.

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