RBI Projects GDP Growth At 9.5% In 2021-22

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), today projected the real GDP growth for 2021-22 at 9.5%.

The country's central bank has projected real GDP growth at 18.5 per cent in Q1; 7.9 per cent in Q2; 7.2 per cent in Q3; and 6.6 per cent in Q4 of 2021-22.

"Notwithstanding the sequential decline of the indicators of rural demand in April, rural demand is expected to remain strong as forecast of a normal monsoon bodes well for sustaining its buoyancy going forward. The increased spread of COVID-19 infections in rural areas, however, poses downside risks," the RBI has said.

Urban demand, as reflected in some high frequency indicators - electricity consumption; railway freight traffic; port cargo; steel consumption; cement production; e-way bills; and toll collections - recorded sequential moderation during April-May 2021 as manufacturing and services activity weakened due to restrictions/lockdowns imposed by most states, the RBI said in a statement.

"Mobility indicators have declined during April-May, but they remain above the levels seen during the first wave last year. Domestic monetary and financial conditions remain highly accommodative and supportive of economic activity. Moreover, the vaccination process is expected to gather steam in the coming months and that should help to normalise economic activity," the country's central bank said.

With external demand strengthening, a rebound in global trade is taking hold, which should support India's export sector. Global demand conditions are expected to improve further buoyed by fiscal stimulus packages and the fast progress of vaccination in advanced economies