Reliance Industries, the largest company in India in terms of market cap, is going to announce its Q3 results on January 16. Alongside, the behemoth will present Q3FY25 earnings of Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail as well. Ahead of earnings, on Thursday, Reliance stock price traded higher. In the Q3FY25, Reliance's consolidated EBITDA is expected to record modest gains, however, performance is seen subdued in O2C business and retail segment. The telecom business is expected to see healthy growth.
Reliance Industries Share Price:
At the time of writing, Reliance stock price is trading at Rs 1262.55 apiece on BSE, up by 0.82% on BSE with market cap of Rs 17,08,529.74 crore. The stock traded near its intraday high of Rs 1264.30 apiece.
Reliance Industries Q3 Results Preview:
As per the regulatory filing, a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company is scheduled to be held on Thursday, January 16, 2025, inter alia, to consider and approve the standalone and consolidated unaudited financial results of the Company for the quarter and nine months ended December 31, 2024. The earnings of Reliance Retail and Jio will also be presented on January 16th.
Goldman Sachs expects RIL's 3Q core EBITDA to grow 5% QoQ but to remain largely flat YoY as strong telecom earnings growth is expected to be offset by weakness in energy and more muted retail growth. These challenges are already well known as management flagged that the streamlining/restructuring of operations will remain a drag on retail earnings through 4Q as well.
The global brokerage's preview note said, "we expect FY26E EBITDA to grow 24% YoY and consol CROCI to expand 110/75 bps in FY26E/FY27E driven by (1) our constructive view on refining margins (large permanent capacity closures in CY25), (2) another telecom tariff hike in FY26E, (3) return of retail top-line growth from FY26E (improving macro and post operations restructuring), and (4) potential start of the new energy giga complex (initially with c.10GW module/cell line and gradually."
Further, Antique Stock Broking said, "We forecast QoQ EBITDA growth of 4.6% driven by strong telecom performance, GRM recovery, and a slight improvement in retail partly set-off by weak petrochem and oil & gas. Higher depreciation and tax are likely to set-off the EBITDA improvement leading to flat PAT."
Moreover, Kotak Institutional Equities expects consolidated EBITDA to rise a modest 4% yoy (~9% QoQ), mainly driven by the further benefit of a July 2024 telecom tariff hike.
Kotak's note further said, " We expect consolidated O2C EBITDA to decline ~4% yoy (though up 9% QoQ). While refining margins likely recovered qoq, overall margins remain weak. With the further benefit of the tariff hike, we expect R-Jio's EBITDA to rise 8% qoq (22% yoy). We assume blended ARPU of Rs208 (7% qoq, 15% yoy). We expect another weak result for retail. We forecast retail EBITDA to grow a modest ~2% yoy (up 9% qoq on festive demand). EBITDA margin of 7.2% (7.4% qoq) should look optically weak due to increased connectivity revenue."
In Q2FY25, Reliance reported consolidated net profit attributed to the company's owners, at Rs 16,563 crore, declining by 4.8% YoY. The bottom-line front took a hit on a YoY basis after Reliance's Q2C EBITDA declined sharply by 23.7% YoY owing to weak product margins. The retail business saw a slight improvement, while the EBITDA of the telecom and oil & gas business was healthy. Gross revenue witnessed a gradual upside of 0.8% YoY to Rs 258,027 crore in Q2FY25, compared to Rs 255,996 crore in Q2FY24. As per Reliance, on the top-line front, oil-to-chemicals (O2C) revenue improved with higher volumes and increased domestic placement of products.
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