Reliance Q4 Results Preview: Will Mukesh Ambani's Behemoth Report Upbeat Earnings? NCDs, Dividend Ahead

Reliance Industries Q4 Results Preview: The Mukesh Ambani-backed oil and gas behemoth, Reliance Industries (RIL) share price rallied 2% on Friday, ahead of its Q4 results which is scheduled to be announced later in the day. Reliance is expected to report modest gains in consolidated EBITDA, and benefit from tariff hike in its telecom giant Reliance Jio. Also, recovery is likely seen in Reliance Retail. Apart from Q4 results, Reliance is going to consider the proposal of dividend and fundraising via non-convertible debentures (NCDs).

"We expect consolidated EBITDA to rise a modest 3.5% yoy (flat qoq), mainly driven by further benefit from the telecom tariff hike and recovery in retail. We expect consolidated O2C EBITDA to decline ~11% yoy (up 3.2% qoq, in part due to a weak INR)," Kotak Institutional Equities said in a note.

With the further benefit of the tariff hike, the analysts of Kotak expect R-Jio's EBITDA to rise 3.3% qoq (17.5% yoy). They said, "We assume a blended ARPU of Rs206 (1.5% qoq, ~14% yoy). We expect further recovery for retail. We forecast retail EBITDA to grow ~10% yoy (down 6.5% qoq, high base in 3Q on festive demand)."

At the time of writing, Reliance Industries share price traded at Rs 1319 apiece on BSE, surging by 1.33% with market cap of Rs 17,84,919.99 crore. The stock gained more than 1.8% in the opening bell to hit an intraday high of Rs 1325.25 apiece.

In the previous quarter, Reliance recorded a consolidated net profit of Rs 18,540 crore, which saw a growth of 7.4% YoY and 11.94% QoQ. Also, its top-line front climbed by 6.97% YoY and 3.56% QoQ to Rs 2,43,865 crore.

For Q4FY25, Reliance is expected to record consolidated revenue of Rs 2,40,383.9 crore, while EBITDA and PAT are predicted at Rs 44,294.2 crore and Rs 21,232.6 crore respectively. Equirus said, "O2C profitability to remain similar this quarter. JIO will report sharp increase in margin due to tariff hike. Retail remain sluggish and will report single digit growth."

Additionally, Reliance Industries (RIL IN) Q4FY25E GRM may be at USD 12.2/bbl versus USD 14.0/bbl estimated in Q4FY24, said, Elara Capital in another note.

Also, earlier, Earlier, Goldman Sachs said, "We believe earnings growth will resume in FY26e ( GSe 18%), driven by --- 1) rebound in retail EBITDA (ex-connectivity) growth to 12% with operations restructuring now largely behind us alongside an improving macro backdrop; 2) acceleration in Jio's earnings growth to 24% as our telecom team expects another tariff hike in 2HCY25S; and 3) refining margins will likely improve with c.10 mb/d global refinery capacity likely to close permanently through CY25E."

Reliance Industries Fundraising:

Further, on April 25, Reliance will consider the proposal of raising funds by way of issuance of listed, secured/unsecured, redeemable non-convertible debentures on a private placement basis, in one or more tranches.

Reliance Industries Dividend:

Also, on April 25, Reliance announced that the board will consider the recommendation of a dividend on equity shares of the Company for the financial year ended March 31, 2025.

Last year, Reliance carried one of the biggest bonus issues of a 1:1 ratio with effect from October 28, 2024. Also, the company paid a final dividend of Rs 10 with an ex-date on August 19, 2024.

BUY Reliance Stock?

Elara Capital has recommended ACCUMULATE on Reliance. Meanwhile, Kotak Institutional Equities has suggested BUY for a target price of Rs 1,400. Goldman Sachs set a Rs 1,640 target on Reliance with BUY recommendation.

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