Rupee Rises to 5-Week High of 94.68 Against Dollar as US-Iran Peace Deal Leads to Crude Oil Crash

The Indian rupee opened sharply higher on Monday, June 15, gaining 43 paise to 94.68 against the US dollar compared to Friday's close of 95.11. This is the strongest level in the last five weeks, as news of the US-Iran peace deal led to a crash in crude oil prices and lifted sentiment across Asian markets.

US-Iran Deal: The Main Factor

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that a deal had been reached and said the text would be released after a signing ceremony in Switzerland. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had earlier said that a Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries had never been closer, which fuelled the expectations that the conflict could finally reach its end.

The formal signing is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Geneva, Switzerland, after which the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, bringing back normalcy for India's energy imports and exports.

Oil Prices Crash, Dollar Index Falls

Crude oil plunged more than 5% to around $80 per barrel on Monday, touching a two-month low. US crude oil futures for July delivery fell more than 5% to $80.25 per barrel, while Brent crude futures for August delivery slipped over 4% to $83.31 per barrel.

The dollar index slipped to around 99.5 on Monday, hitting its lowest level in more than a week.

Markets Cheer; Sensex Surges Over 1,100 Points

The equity market in India today opened strongly on Monday after the US-Iran peace deal. The BSE Sensex surged 1.59% to 76,725.30, while the Nifty 50 climbed 1.53% to 23,984.80 at the open.

Asian markets also traded higher post the peace deal announcement. Japan's Nikkei surged 5.42%, China's Shanghai Composite advanced 1.21%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.6%.

Rupee Outlook Ahead

Despite the optimism, FPI selling is still weighing on the rupee. Finrex Treasury Advisors, in a note on Monday, said, "FPIs sold Rs 62,800 crore worth of Indian shares in June 2026 alone. Analysts and market veterans have linked the selling pressure to the US-Iran conflict that began on 28 February 2026, the subsequent disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, crude rising above $100, and rupee weakness, all of which reduced dollar returns and encouraged further exits"

According to Finrex, "The rupee is set to trade in the range of 94.50 to 95.30 during the afternoon session, barring any fresh developments. Exporters have been advised to sell into rupee strength, while importers are advised to cover near-term payments for June and July on dips."

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed are solely those of the individual analysts or entities and do not reflect the views of Goodreturns.in or Greynium Information Technologies Private Limited (together referred as "we"). We do not guarantee, endorse or take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any content, nor do we provide any investment advice or solicit the purchase or sale of securities. All information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should be independently verified from licensed financial advisors before making any investment decisions.