SBI Q1FY26 Preview: Stable Earnings Seen Amid Margin Pressure, Healthy Credit Growth; All Eyes On August 8

State Bank of India (SBI) is scheduled to release its financial results for the quarter ended on 30th June 2025 or Q1FY26 on Friday, 8th August. State Bank of India (SBI) is anticipated to report a stable performance with key metrics that will continue to focus on capital adequacy, loan book growth, and return ratios, according to reports obtained by multiple brokerages.

State Bank of India (SBI) is expected to report a stable Q1 FY26, with net profit likely growing 5-7% YoY, supported by healthy credit growth and treasury gains. However, NIMs may compress 5-7 bps QoQ due to rising deposit costs, a trend seen across the sector, says Sourav Choudhary, MD - Raghunath Capital.

Loan growth is expected at ~13-14% YoY, led by strong traction in retail and MSME segments. Fee income and treasury may aid overall revenue, while asset quality remains benign, with credit costs below 25 bps and stable GNPA/NNPA ratios, Sourav Choudhary further added.

SBI Q1FY26 Earnings Preview By Axis Securities

Despite a modest 1.8% sequential dip, the brokerage predicts that SBI will announce Net Interest Income (NII) that may rise by 2.2% YoY to Rs 42,013 crore. Notably, non-interest income is expected to surge by 49.7% YoY to Rs 16,705 crore in Q1FY26, while declining 31% QoQ. Better operating efficiency and strong non-core income are driving a good momentum for Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP), which is expected to expand 5.1% YoY to Rs 27,806 crore.

As loan costs level off and asset quality somewhat improves, provisioning is predicted to go up dramatically YoY. The net profit might be Rs 16,859 crore, which would be 9.6% down QoQ but largely unchanged YoY. Additionally, the brokerage anticipates that deposits and advances will continue to expand by double digits, at 9% and 12% YoY, respectively.

SBI Q1FY26 Results Preview By InCred Equities - InCred Group

With Net Interest Income (NII) predicted at Rs 41,300 crore, representing a moderate year-on-year (YoY) rise of 0.5%, State Bank of India (SBI) is anticipated to record a stable performance in Q1FY26. NII may, however, decline by 3.4% QoQ. Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) is predicted to fall by 9.9% QoQ but rise 6.5% YoY to Rs 28,200 crore.

Forecasted at Rs 18,500 crore, net profit (PAT) shows a strong 8.3% YoY growth but a modest 1% QoQ dip. Margins will probably continue to decline, falling 34 basis points year on year to 2.88%. It is anticipated that credit costs will drop to 46 basis points, a sign of better asset quality control. Despite margin pressure, advances are expected to expand by 12.2% YoY to reach Rs 42.05 lakh crore, demonstrating SBI's robust credit growth momentum as per the brokerage.

SBI Q1FY26 Results Preview By Equirus Securities

Despite a modest 1.3% sequential drop, the brokerage predicts that State Bank of India (SBI) will post a stable performance in Q1FY26, with Net Interest Income (NII) of Rs 42,239 crore, representing a 2.7% year-on-year (YoY) growth.

At Rs 27,979.6 crore, pre-provisioning income (PPI) is expected to expand 5.8% YoY but decline 10.6% quarter on quarter (QoQ). Due to margin compression, profit after tax (PAT) is predicted to drop to Rs 16,346.9 crore, a 4% YoY and 12.3% QoQ fall.

It is anticipated that earnings per share (EPS) would drop from Rs 20.9 in the previous quarter or Q4FY25 to Rs 18.3 in the quarter under review. It is expected that the Net Interest Margin (NIM) would contract by 9 basis points on a quarterly basis to 2.9%. NIMs are predicted to drop by 10 basis points as a result of margin pressure, while the bank's advances are likely to rise by about 2% on a quarterly basis.

Comments on NIM Guidance, underlying trends in the economy, and traction in deposits are the key things to look for, as per Equirus Securities.

SBI Q1FY26 Results Preview By Yes Securities

In Q1FY26, State Bank of India (SBI) is anticipated to post Net Interest Income (NII) of Rs 43,202 crore, representing a marginal sequential rise of 1.0% and a 5.1% YoY growth. The estimated pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) is Rs 28,860 crore, representing a 7.8% QoQ drop but a 9.1% YoY growth. The bank's net profit is anticipated to reach Rs 17,847 crore, up 4.8% YoY but down 4.3% sequentially.

"Sequential loan growth will be in the 0.5% ballpark due to idiosyncratic growth trajectory. NII growth will be slower than average loan growth due to fall in yield on advances outpacing cost of deposits. Consequently, NIM will be lower sequentially. Sequential fee income will be lower than loan growth due to seasonality. Opex growth would be lower than business growth. Slippages would be higher on sequential basis due to seasonality. Provisions will be lower on sequential basis as there was additional PLI related provision in Q4," Yes Securities said in a report.

Valuation & Outlook

SBI remains fundamentally strong, supported by:
- Steady RoA (>1%) and strong capital position
- Stable asset quality and provisioning buffer
- Diversified loan book and strong digital franchise

At ~1.2x FY26E core P/ABV, valuations remain attractive.

"We maintain a BUY rating for long-term investors with a target price of ₹950.
Near-term investors may HOLD, as margin pressures and consolidation could cap upside in the short run," commented Sourav Choudhary, MD - Raghunath Capital.

SBI Target Price

Hardik Matalia - Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking said, "SBIN is currently trading at ₹805.15 and, after witnessing a bounce from lower levels, the stock has entered a consolidation phase. It is attempting to take support near the lower end of its recent trading range, showing early signs of a potential reversal. This price action suggests that the stock may be preparing for its next directional move."

"At present, SBIN is hovering near its short-term, medium-term, and long-term EMAs, indicating that it is well-aligned with its key moving averages. This technical positioning adds strength to the current setup. A sustained move above ₹820 could confirm the beginning of an upward move, opening the path for a retest of its recent swing highs around ₹845-₹850. A breakout above this zone could further fuel bullish momentum in the stock," the analyst added.

"The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49.17 and has recently shown signs of a reversal, with a potential positive crossover that points toward improving momentum. From a short-term trading perspective, traders can consider buying once a confirmed reversal is seen, aiming for a move toward the swing high. Fresh long positions may be considered on a breakout above ₹850. For long-term investors, current levels offer an opportunity for partial accumulation, with scope to add more on meaningful dips," Hardik Matalia further recommended.

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