Sensex, Nifty Prediction For April 7-11: Holiday On This Day; Will RBI Policy, Q4 Drive Indian Stock Market?

Stock Market Prediction: The upcoming week for the Indian stock market and its counterparts is expected to be volatile with uncertainties related to Trump's tariffs and the FOMC's minutes of meeting key focus areas. In India, apart from global factors, RBI's first bi-monthly monetary policy outcomes play a key role, as although inflation cooled sharply in the country, the worldwide economic conditions call for a wait-and-watch mode. Additionally, the onset of Q4 results will contribute to sentiment. However, this week is a holiday-shortened week, meaning traders will have only four sessions to buy or sell.

Last week, broad-based selloffs across indices dragged Sensex to below 75,500 and Nifty 50 to around 22,900 levels. After market hours of April 4th, Sensex closed at 75,364.69, down by 930.67 points or 1.22%, and Nifty 50 plunged by 345.65 points or 1.49% to close at 22,904.45.

Overall, during the trading week from March 31st to April 4th, the Sensex plunged by 2,112.58 points or 2.73%, and the Nifty dropped by 568.25 points or 2.42%.

After a slowdown in selling pressure during March 2025, FPIs once again became net sellers of Indian stocks. In the first four trading sessions of April (1-4th), FPIs pulled out a whopping Rs 10,355 crore from equities. Overall, the outflow was around Rs 3,973 crore in March 2025.

Accordingly, FIIs are also net sellers of Indian equities, with an inflow of Rs 13,730.49 crore in April so far. Continuing the opposite trend pattern, DIIs (domestic institutional buyers) once again emerged as net buyers, with an inflow of Rs 5,632.56 crore.

While equities faced a conundrum, the forex market saw a major shift with dollar trading volatile. The rupee reached around 85 levels against the dollar, making it the strongest performance since December 2024, due to subdued greenback as US tariffs and lower crude oil prices weigh.

On the sectoral front, during last week's performance, Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group said, heavy selling was witnessed in IT and Metal stocks, which emerged as the worst performers, plunging 9.15% and 7.46%, respectively. FMCG was the only sector to post gains, rising a modest 0.45%, indicating defensive buying amid market volatility. The sell-off was primarily triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to impose steep reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners, including a 27% levy on select Indian goods. This move reignited fears of a global trade war, prompting broad-based risk aversion across emerging markets.

Market sentiment further weakened amid rising U.S. Treasury yields and lingering inflationary concerns, which dampened hopes of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve. FIIs turned aggressive sellers, pulling out approximately ₹13,730 crore from the cash segment, while DIIs provided some support with net inflows of around ₹5,632 crore, he said.

Last week's performance signalled heightened caution in the market ahead of Q4 results and RBI policy.

Key Events This Week:

According to Puneet, the upcoming week is set to be volatile for global and Indian markets, as US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on markets worldwide, as fears ignited of an all-out trade war and a global economic recession. The US inflation numbers will be released along with the US FOMC minutes.

At home, the RBI will likely decide on interest rates. India's Industrial and Manufacturing production is also set to be released this week.

Further on Friday, April 11, India's CPI (Mar) data will be released, which is estimated to be at 3.9% (YoY) and 0.2% (MoM). Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will also be released, forecasted at 3.1% and 4.6% YoY respectively. Manufacturing, which contributes 78% to India's total industrial output, remains a critical indicator of the country's economic growth, Puneet added.

Sensex, Nifty Prediction:

In his technical outlook, Puneet believes Nifty 50 has slipped to a two-week low, weighed down by rising fears of a global trade war and recession, which have created a wave of negative sentiment. The index has broken below its crucial 21-day and 55-day EMAs, signalling a shift back into a negative trend. Additionally, the RSI has dropped below its 14-day SMA, further confirming weakening momentum. With the market likely to open gap-down on Monday, the near-term outlook remains bearish. Key support levels to watch are 22,300 and 22,000. On the upside, 22,800 now acts as a strong resistance. In this environment, Nifty becomes a sell-on-rise market, and traders are advised to remain cautious and avoid aggressive long positions until stability returns.

In the case of Bank Nifty, Puneet added, Bank Nifty has shown relative strength, closing flat this week, despite broader market weakness. The index continues to trade above its double-bottom pattern and remains in a tight range over the past 10 sessions. It is holding above the crucial 21-day and 55-day EMAs, indicating short-term support. However, the breakout level of 50,600 now acts as a key support; a breach below this could lead to a decline toward 49,600, which aligns with the 55-week EMA. On the upside, the psychological resistance of 52,000 remains a major hurdle. Until this level is crossed decisively, further upside momentum is unlikely. The overall view remains cautious, and traders are advised to stay alert with key levels in focus.

This week, Siddhartha Khemka, Head - of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial said, Indian markets are expected to be volatile on the back concerns over the impact of the US reciprocal tariffs and potential announcements of further sector-specific tariffs during the week. Also, the focus will be on RBI's monetary policy outcome on 9th April, where the market is expecting another 25 bps rate cut, and the Q4FY25 earnings season kicking off with TCS results on 10th April. Investors will also watch out for March CPI data from the US and India to be released this week.

Khemka believes that though the 27% tariffs on India are higher than expected, it is relatively lower compared to that levied on countries like China (34% + 20% earlier), Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), Indonesia (32%) and Bangladesh (37%) which compete with India for the export share; thus improving India's potential export competitiveness. Overall, we expect that the impact of reciprocal tariffs on India will be limited on a national basis as India's exports in the six most vulnerable sectors amount to only 1.1% of India's GDP. There is possibility that the impact could further be reduced as India is in the process of negotiating a bilateral agreement with the US.

What Should Traders Do?

Market is expected to start the week on a bearish note and hence traders are advised to be cautious.

Choice Broking said, "Looking at global cues, the Gift Nifty is currently down around 600 points, suggesting a weak start for Indian markets on Monday. US markets too ended lower, dragged by renewed concerns around trade tariffs. If Dow futures remain negative, it may further dampen the sentiment. The overall setup points to a cautious start for the coming week unless there is some relief on the global front."

Considering the current technical and global setup, markets may open with a gap down on Monday. Choice Broking said, "Traders should keep a close watch on the 22,800 level as a key support. A breach of this may accelerate downside momentum, while any recovery above 23,000 could bring some intraday relief. Positional traders are advised to remain cautious and wait for a clear directional signal before taking fresh positions."

This week, trading sessions will be held on April 7th, 8th, 9th and 11th. Market will be closed on April 10th due to Mahavir Jayanti.

Disclaimer: The write-up is just for information purposes, and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. We have not done fundamental or technical analysis and have no opinion on article mentioned. Neither, the author nor Greynium Information Technologies should be held liable for any losses. Please consult a professional advisor.