Stock Market Outlook July 29: Bearish Setup for Nifty, Sensex; Options Data Signals Strong Resistance Ahead

Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty are expected to open on a subdued note on Tuesday, July 29, with the GIFT Nifty trading 0.13% lower at 24,676, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. This comes after the benchmark indices extended their losing streak in the previous session, the Sensex dropped 572.07 points (0.70%) to settle at 80,891.02, while the Nifty 50 declined 156.10 points (0.63%) to close at 24,680.90.

Stock Market Outlook July 29: Sectoral & Stock-Specific Cues; Expert's View

According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Monday's decline was led by weak earnings from Kotak Mahindra Bank and Macrotech Developers (Lodha), which triggered sharp sell-offs in private banking and realty stocks. Nifty Realty and Private Bank indices fell 4.1% and 1.7%, respectively. On the positive side, the Pharma index gained 0.4% following better-than-expected Q1 results from Cipla and Laurus Labs.

"Meanwhile, investors would also track the Industrial production data for June to be released later today. Overall, we expect the market to remain under pressure amid mixed Q1 earnings, continued FII selling (Rs13,553cr cumulative outflow last week) and lack of progress on the India-US trade deal ahead of the nearing Aug'1 deadline," said the expert.

Sensex, Nifty50 Technical View: Bearish Signals on Charts

Nifty Prediction Today

The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candlestick for the third straight session on July 28, closing below key short and medium-term moving averages as well as the lower Bollinger Band. This continued decline indicates sustained selling pressure and a likely consolidation phase with a negative bias. Technical indicators suggest that if the index fails to reclaim support levels quickly, further downside could be on the cards.

Options data supports this view, with heavy Call writing at the 24,800 strike (79.25 lakh contracts), suggesting strong resistance at that level. Additional resistance is expected at 25,000 (1.58 crore contracts) and 25,200 (1.29 crore contracts). On the support side, the 24,000 strike holds the highest Put open interest (83.9 lakh contracts), followed by the 24,500 and 24,600 levels - indicating potential support zones.

"Yesterday, advance decline ratio on NSE was 808 : 2,207 and BSE was 1,200 : 2,951, which showed weakness in the overall markets. Index Options Data Analysis: Sensex max call OI is at 81,500 and max put OI is at 80,000 with PCR of 0.51 Nifty max call OI is at 25,000 and max put OI is at 24,500 with PCR of 0.52 Bank Nifty max call OI is at 57,000 and max put OI is at 56,000 with PCR of 0.56," stated Daily Updates Report from Ventura.

Sensex Prediction Today

The Sensex formed a bearish candle on daily charts with a lower top formation on intraday charts, reinforcing signs of further weakness. Without strong triggers, the index may struggle to find upside momentum in the near term.

US Fed Meeting in Focus Today

Additionally, global investors are watching the ongoing U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. Markets are keenly awaiting any signals on a potential September rate cut, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's response to increasing political pressure from former President Trump.

FII Flows & Broader Outlook

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers last week, with a cumulative outflow of Rs 13,553 crore, adding to market pressure. The lack of progress on the India-US trade deal, with the August 1 deadline approaching, is also weighing on sentiment.

Disclaimer

The recommendations made above are by market analysts and are not advised by either the author, nor Greynium Information Technologies. The author, nor the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision.