BSE Sensex witnessed huge fall of 4371 points to 72,097 and Nifty fell 1384 points to 21,879 at 12:04 pm on Tuesday as counting for LS polls is underway. According to trends, NDA is leading on 295 seat and INDIA is ahead on 229 seats. Nifty Bank fell 3943 points to 47,036 and Nifty Midcap tanked 4437 points to 48,916 on Tuesday.
Earlier, Indian stock market witnessed a sharp selling pressure in the opening bell of Tuesday despite Gift Nifty rallying to hit new all-time high. All eyes are on the Lok Sabha Election 2024 verdict. As per the latest update by Election Commission of India, of the total 543 Lok Saba seats, BJP is leading with 144 seats and Indian National Congress with 53 seats. The poll results numbers are developing and will further change till the final outcome.
Both Sensex and Nifty erased their previous day's record gains, and toppled by 4% each. The 30-scrip benchmark shed over 2,800 points, while the 50-scrip index slipped by more than 874 points. PSU and banking stocks were top laggards, with Bank Nifty erasing its 50,000-51,000 levels and plunging by 2,238.4 points at least in less than an hour of Tuesday's opening trade.
Stocks like Power Grid, SBI, L&T, NTPC, and Reliance were top bears, dragging the market further.
Here's how market may react on poll results, as per Phillip Capital:
Base-case scenario - 290-300 seats for BJP and 330-340 seats for NDA; if this pans out, the brokerage has a positive near/long-term stance in equities, earnings, and economy, assuming policy continuity and execution.
A bullish scenario of 325+ BJP and 360+ NDA - should result in a sharp rise in equities.
A bearish scenario - where the BJP does not secure a majority but the NDA forms a government under the leadership of Mr Narendra Modi as PM - might lead to a sharp sell-off in equities. The brokerage said, "Assuming a stable alliance for the next five years under the leadership of Mr Modi, we would recommend buying equities on steep correction. We do not see any chance of a non-NDA government coming to power."
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Jun 07, 2024, 5:46 pm IST
Sensex Today: Siddharath Arora Director and Head- Products & Research at Equirus Wealth
1.What was the magnitude of the decline in the Sensex and Nifty indices?
Currently Sensex down by 5.56% and Nifty down by 6.12%
2.Which sectors were most affected by the market downturn?
Mid cap and small cap Index impacted the most. Sectorally led by PSE stocks and PSU Banks, Metals, Energy sector . FMCG Positive and pharma flattish
3.What is your reaction to this blood bath
Wait and watch situation. This will evolve over the next few days and weeks. The markets will and like always definitely continue to give opportunities to enter. We believe that volatility will persist through the year and 2024 is a multi event year. While the silver lining remains the near Rs. 20,000/- cr coming in through SIP, investors must continue their allocation with a long term view.
Jun 04, 2024, 3:26 pm IST
Mphasis Announces Strategic Collaboration With Quantum Software Firm Classiq
On Tuesday, June 4, IT-services firm Mphasis announced a strategic collaboration with Classiq, a quantum software company, to bring to market industry solutions enhanced by Quantum. According to a stock exchange filing, the partnership aims to expedite the integration of quantum computing solutions into enterprises.
Jun 04, 2024, 2:50 pm IST
BSE-Listed Companies Witness ₹40 Lakh Crore Market Cap Drop So Far
BSE-listed companies have now seen a market capitalization decline of over ₹40 lakh crore as the NDA-led government seems to be failing to meet the expectations set by exit polls. As of 1 PM, the Narendra Modi-led NDA was leading on 293 seats, while the I.N.D.I.A alliance was leading on 229 seats. This marks the largest single-day drop for the Nifty since May 2020. The broader markets are experiencing a more pronounced decline, with both the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap indices down by over 8% in today's session.
Jun 04, 2024, 2:42 pm IST
Market Outlook By Suman Bannerjee, CIO, Hedonova
A combination of political stability with promises of reforms, improving economic conditions, and supportive global factors like quantitative easing by developed markets fueled a strong rally in Indian stock markets since May 2014. This surge led to over Rs 300 lakh crore in investor wealth, reflecting growing confidence and participation. The future trajectory hinges on the new government's economic policies, with factors like GDP growth, inflation, and global conditions playing a key role. Investors should be prepared for volatility due to currently high valuations and adopt a diversified approach.
Jun 04, 2024, 2:39 pm IST
What does India VIX trading above 25 points mean to investors? By Trivesh D, COO of Tradejini
The India VIX is currently trading in the range of 29–30, up over 39–44%, after falling 15% on Monday as exit polls lifted market sentiments. However, an increase in VIX indicates heightened fear among market participants regarding election results, which has resulted in the fear gauge index. The way the VIX is acting right now is a lot like the period right before the results of the Lok Sabha election were announced in 2019. During the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the India VIX reached a historical high of 39.30, and in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it almost reached the 30 mark.
This rising VIX isn't solely due to election dynamics; global factors such as escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising US Treasury yields also exacerbate market concerns. Investor concerns are growing, especially in the mid-and small-cap sectors, due to disappointing quarterly results and expectations of a reduction in the number of seats held by the ruling coalition.
Watching India VIX during elections is like peeking into the market's emotions, showing how everyone's feeling and reacting to the twists and turns of the political drama. We have seen, that when the Lok Sabha results roll in, the India VIX becomes like a mood ring for the stock market, reflecting the ups and downs of investor nerves. Investors become more cautious due to the potential for policy changes or political instability. This uncertainty often leads to higher market volatility, as traders adjust their positions in response to shifting political dynamics. Consequently, the India VIX, which measures market volatility and investor anxiety, tends to increase during election periods. The uncertainty surrounding election outcomes directly influences market volatility, making India VIX a key market sentiment indicator.
Jun 04, 2024, 2:16 pm IST
Nifty PSU Bank Index Plunges 18% - Largest Decline Since April 2021
PSU banking stocks continued to experience significant selling pressure on Tuesday, June 4, as the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance approached the 300-mark, though it seemed to be falling short of the landslide majority predicted by most exit polls. Most exit polls on Saturday anticipated the ruling BJP's return to power with a substantial majority, securing seats ranging from 316 to 400 in the Lok Sabha elections. The Nifty PSU Bank index plummeted by over 1,400 points or 17.55% to 6,599.85, marking its largest single-day decline since April 2021.
Jun 04, 2024, 1:56 pm IST
Market Stages Recovery
The stock market rebounded after declining as much as 9% today. Sensex regained more than 1,700 points after dipping to a low of 70,234.43. Similarly, the Nifty index recovered 800 points from its intraday low of 21,281.45. Adani Group stocks also recovered some of their losses. The Nifty FMCG index rose 0.5%, while HUL and Dabur India both witnessed a 5% increase in their stock prices.
Jun 04, 2024, 1:42 pm IST
Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase Manager and Founder, Quantace Research
The recent market plunge, with the Sensex dropping 2,700 points, underscores the importance of long-term investing. Historical data shows that large-cap forward-looking returns improve significantly over time. In 6 months, the average forward return is 8.3% with a 73.2% winning chance. Over 1 year, returns increase to 15.8% with a 73.8% chance. At 2 years, returns jump to 30.7% with an 81.8% chance. By 3 years, the return is 44.2% with a 95.1% chance, and over 4 years, it reaches 55.9% with a 96.3% chance. This data highlights the benefits of patience and a long-term perspective in the market.
Jun 04, 2024, 1:32 pm IST
Investor Wealth Declines By Rs 40 Lakh Crore
Sharp selloff in the Indian stock market resulted in a significant loss for investors, reducing their wealth by approximately Rs 40 lakh crore in intraday trade on Tuesday, June 4. The overall market capitalisation =of companies listed on the BSE plummeted to Rs 386 lakh crore against nearly Rs 426 lakh crore at the previous session's close.
Jun 04, 2024, 1:15 pm IST
VK Vikaykumar, Geojit Financial
Investors need not rush in to buy today even if the results confirm the exit polls. Remain invested in largecaps and do some profit booking in smallcaps. A significant trend yesterday was the largecaps outperforming smallcaps. This is primarily the consequence of FIIs turning buyers. If the FIIs continue to buy, this largecap outperformance will continue. RIL, L&T, HDFC, ICICI and M&M are on strong wickets.
Jun 04, 2024, 1:12 pm IST
Market Outlook By Mandar Bhojane - Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking
On the 4th of June, the Lok Sabha Election results led to significant market reactions, reflecting the intense political competition. The market was initially buoyed by expectations of a strong performance from the NDA, which currently stands at 294 seats, while the INDIA alliance holds 223 seats, indicating a tight contest.
However, the actual market response was markedly negative, with the Nifty falling over 1330 points from its all-time high and currently down by 5%. Bank Nifty experienced an even steeper decline, dropping by 6%. All sectors witnessed a downturn, with the highest falls observed in PSU Banks, Nifty Energy, and Nifty Metals. Notably, PFC, REC, and all Adani stocks hit the lower circuit with a 20% decline.
Conversely, the FMCG sector demonstrated relative resilience, with stocks such as Hindustan Unilever, Dabur, and Colgate-Palmolive showing strength amidst the broader market decline.
Post the sharp 1200 points fall, Nifty exhibited a volatile range between 21800 and 23350, creating a significant 1500+ point spread. The index formed a substantial bearish candle, with key support levels identified at 22000 and 22800. Should these levels fail to hold, the next supports are at 21500 and 21200. On the upside, Nifty needs to break above 22800 and 23000 to regain strength and potentially surge to new all-time highs of 23500 and 23700.
The India VIX surged by 31%, reaching 27.33, highlighting the increased volatility and market fluctuations in response to the election results. This volatility spike suggests that traders and investors should brace for continued turbulence.
Jun 04, 2024, 12:33 pm IST
Market Outlook By Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services
With the 733 point rally in the Nifty yesterday the market has already discounted a clear win for the NDA and majority on its own for BJP. Only a dramatic change from this expected outcome will cause a major change in the market.
Investors need not rush in to buy today even if the results confirm the exit polls. Remain invested in largecaps and do some profit booking in smallcaps.
A significant trend yesterday was the largecaps outperforming smallcaps. This is primarily the consequence of FIIs turning buyers. If the FIIs continue to buy, this largecap outperformance will continue. RIL, L&T, HDFC, ICICI and M&M are on strong wickets.
Jun 04, 2024, 12:11 pm IST
Lemon Tree Hotels Q4 Result Update | Strong close to the year; slowly shifting gears
Sumit Kumar of JM Financial said, “4QFY24 was a strong quarter for Lemon Tree Hotels (LTH) with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT 5%/8%/7% above JMFe (2%/5%/20% above consensus) led by strong traction at Aurika, Mumbai, and a better-than-expected margin performance. Revenue grew 30% YoY to INR 3.3bn (+13% QoQ) aided by ARR growth of 13%, increase in room inventory and robust growth in fee revenue. EBITDA margin declined YoY due to planned renovations, increase in employee expenses due to wage inflation, and expansion of the business development team. We expect LTH to deliver Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15%/17%/29% over FY24A-27E aided by low double-digit RevPAR growth over the same period. We reiterate BUY with an unchanged Mar’25 TP of INR 160, valuing LTH at 24.0x EV/EBITDA.”
Jun 04, 2024, 12:01 pm IST
SME Stock Beacon Trusteeship Debuts At 50% Premium From IPO Price On Exchanges
Beacon Trusteeship Limited made a stellar debut on the NSE SME platform, with shares opening at Rs 90, marking a 50% increase over its issue price of Rs 60 per share. The debut excitement was palpable as the stock quickly hit the 5% upper circuit limit, reflecting strong investor demand and positive market sentiment.
Beacon Trusteeship's IPO, which commenced on May 28 and closed on May 30, was priced at Rs 60 per equity share, each with a face value of Rs 10. Investors could subscribe to the IPO in lots of 2,000 shares, with a minimum application of 2,000 shares and increments thereof. The IPO was highly anticipated, garnering a subscription status of 465.20 times on the final day of bidding.
Jun 04, 2024, 11:44 am IST
FMCG, Healthcare Stocks Defy Markets Trend, Rally Up To 4%
BSE Sensex witnessed massive decline of 3426 points to 73,049 and Nifty fell 1111 points to 22,152 at 11:31 am on Tuesday as counting for LS polls is underway. However, a few sectors witnessed rally and defied market trends. These sectors are FMCG and healthcare. FMCG and healthcare stocks demonstrated surge on Tuesday, significantly defying the market rout and gained up to 4%. FMCG stocks such as HUL, Dabur, Colgate, and Marico gained between 2% to over 4% in trade today.
Jun 04, 2024, 11:26 am IST
India 10-year Yield Sees Biggest Surge In 8 Months On Election Counting Day
Indian government bond yields witnessed a strong rise, marking the biggest surge in 8-months for the 10-year benchmark bond yield, as counting for LS polls is underway. According to initial trends, NDA is leading on 291 seat and INDIA is ahead on 224 seats.
India's benchmark 10-year yield stood at 7.0130%, as against its earlier close of 6.9438% at 10:00 a.m. IST. Earlier in the day, the yield surged at 7.0375%, rising its highest level in almost 2-weeks.
Jun 04, 2024, 10:54 am IST
Sensex Today: Shilpa Rout, Head of Derivative Research at Prabhudas Lilladher
Markets are very volatile. Technically, the 161.8% retracement level of 23400 was met, and now the lower end of the rising channel support is at the 22100 zone.
The option chain also reflects PE OI unwinding on the weekly expiry, with the 22800 zone now looking like resistance. Therefore, an aggressive move of 500 to 800 points can occur after the results are out.
Jun 04, 2024, 10:35 am IST
Biocon Receives USFDA Nod For Micafungin Drug
The company has received nod from the US Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) for its injectable drug product, Micafungin (50mg and 100mg vials). The drug is used as an antifungal medication to treat fungal or yeast infections.
Jun 04, 2024, 10:32 am IST
Zee Entertainment To Mull Fundraising On June 6
Zee Entertainment said the meeting of the board of directors has been scheduled for June 6 to consider raising funds via issuance of equity shares and/or any other eligible securities.
Jun 04, 2024, 10:29 am IST
Top 5 Gainers and Losers Today
Stock Market Live Updates
Jun 04, 2024, 10:19 am IST
Rupee Declines By 24 Paise Against US Dollar On Counting Day
Indian rupee depreciated by 24 paise to Rs 83.38 against the US dollar. Earlier, rupee opened 10 paise lower at 83.24 per dollar on Tuesday as against Monday's close of 83.14 as counting of votes for Lok Sabha election results is underway amid tight security. Meanwhile, BSE Sensex plummeted 2106 points to 74,361 and Nifty fell 657 points to 22,606 in early morning trade at 9:28 am.
Earlier on June 3, rupee jumped to over two-month high closing level and settled with a gain of 28 paise at 83.14 (provisional) against the US dollar, tracking over 3% surge in domestic equity benchmarks after exit poll results predicted a firm comeback of the ruling BJP-led government for the third straight term, according to PTI report.
Jun 04, 2024, 10:05 am IST
Sensex Today: Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities
"The market discounted the election outcome on June 3 itself. It is expecting the BJP-led NDA to win 350-375 seats. If this number becomes a reality, the market will likely sustain the gains," said Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities.
Jun 04, 2024, 9:42 am IST
Top Bulls
Only HUL and Sun Pharma shares are in green, with marginal upside.
Jun 04, 2024, 9:42 am IST
Top Bears
Stocks like Power Grid, NTPC, SBI, L&T, Axis Bank, Reliance, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, ITC, Kotak Bank, IndusInd Bank, and Tata Motors are top bears with decline from 3% 6.5%.
Jun 04, 2024, 9:34 am IST
Nifty 50 Nosedives
Just like its counterpart Sensex, Nifty 50 also erased its previous day's record gains, and plummeted by 874.05 points or 4% to hit the day's low of 23,263.90. The benchmark had opened at 23,179.50 apiece, which is currently the day's high.
Jun 04, 2024, 9:34 am IST
Sensex In Bloodbath
Sensex erased its record-breaking gains of yesterday, and nosedived by a massive 2,809.49 points or 4% to hit an intraday low of 73,659.29. The benchmark opened above 76,000 mark to 76,285.78, before panic selling by investors toppled it.
Jun 04, 2024, 9:12 am IST
Traders Await Election Verdict
Aditya Gaggar, Director of Progressive Shares: The Index ended the 1st day of the June month at record levels of 23,264. On the daily chart, Nifty50 has formed a hanging man candlestick pattern which indicates a trend reversal but in the near term, it is the general election's outcome likely to influence the market trend which will lead to immense volatility on both sides. All the sectors have shown a strong outperformance in the previous session and some of them are at their record levels but considering the probable volatility, we will wait for a clear picture.
Jun 04, 2024, 8:46 am IST
Key Stocks To Watch Today
Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities: The Nifty surged yesterday, fuelled by strong exit poll results predicting a decisive victory for the BJP-led NDA and positive economic indicators like an 8.2% GDP growth in FY24, an 'above normal' monsoon forecast, a 10% rise in GST collections, and falling oil prices. Today, with Lok Sabha election results pending, markets are keenly watching for a potential historic third term for PM Narendra Modi and whether the NDA will exceed 400 seats. A favourable outcome could drive Nifty towards the 24000 mark, while the 22500 level remains crucial support. Key stocks to watch include HDFC AMC, SUZLON, and DLF, with SUZLON recommended for long-term accumulation.
Jun 04, 2024, 7:58 am IST
Will Sensex, Nifty Reach New Highs?
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services: Fundamentally, India is witnessing excellent macros with GDP growth of 8.2% in FY24, inflation at ~5%, fiscal deficits within tolerance band, stable currency, etc.. Even corporate earnings have been solid with Nifty ended FY24 with 25% earnings growth and FY25/26 earnings are likely to post 14-15% CAGR. We expect the market to reach new highs given the clear majority for the ruling party in exit polls, good macro trends, and solid corporate earnings. One can focus on manufacturing, capex, infrastructure and financials as theme for long term investment.
Jun 04, 2024, 7:32 am IST
Gift Nifty Today
In the early trade of Tuesday, Gift Nifty opened higher at 23,537.50, and rallied to hit new all-time high of 23,587.50. This signals yet another record high opening for Sensex and Nifty.
Jun 04, 2024, 7:30 am IST
JM Financial Prediction Of Poll Results:
On a PAN-India basis, the brokerage said, "we see the net incremental loss of ~4 seats for BJP at 299 in the base case; our bear and bull case seat tally lies in a narrow range of 290 to 310."
Jun 04, 2024, 7:30 am IST
Motilal Oswal On Election Results
The BJP is anticipated to inch closer to ~40% vote share on its own (vs. 37.3% in 2019), and the NDA is expected to touch 47% vote share (vs. 45% in 2019). The Congress is also likely to improve its vote share to ~21% in 2024 from 19% in 2019, but it will still be close to half of the BJP's projected vote share. The BJP is predicted to win an average of 325+ seats (vs. 303 seats in 2019), while the Congress is expected to improve its tally to ~65 seats (from 52 seats in 2019).
Jun 04, 2024, 7:30 am IST
IIFL Securities Polls Opinion
The base case scenario is that the BJP party may bag 320 seats, which would be a majority win.
Jun 04, 2024, 7:30 am IST
Bernstein Polls Prediction:
Case 1: Mission India 2024, BJP alone may bag over 290 seats and NDA over 340 seats; Case 2: Reigning In Capex: BJP to win 260-290 seats, and NDA to bag 290-340 seats; Case 3: The Ground Shock: 240-260 seats for BJP, and 270-290 seats in favour of NDA; and Case 4: Return Of Populism: In this scenario, BJP is expected to bag below 240 seats, and NDA below 270 seats.
Jun 04, 2024, 7:27 am IST
Phillip Capital Election Results Prediction
1) Base-case scenario - 290-300 seats for BJP and 330-340 seats for NDA; if this pans out, we have a positive near/long-term stance in equities, earnings, and economy, assuming policy continuity and execution. 2) A bullish scenario of 325+ BJP and 360+ NDA - should result in a sharp rise in equities. 3)A bearish scenario - where the BJP does not secure a majority but the NDA forms a government under the leadership of Mr Narendra Modi as PM - might lead to a sharp sell-off in equities. Assuming a stable alliance for the next five years under the leadership of Mr Modi, we would recommend buying equities on steep correction. We do not see any chance of a non-NDA government coming to power.
Jun 04, 2024, 7:25 am IST
Market Previous Day!
The Indian stock market experienced a historic surge on the day ahead of the general election results, marking its best trading day in three years. The Sensex surged by 2,507 points to close at 76,469, while the Nifty rose by 733 points to finish at 23,264. The Nifty Bank index recorded a gain of 1,996 points, ending at 50,980. Midcap and small cap indices also joined the rally, both soaring nearly 3-4% to new record highs, reflecting the broad-based nature of the market uptrend.
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