Stock Market Outlook For February 21: Will Sensex, Nifty Rise Or Fall On Friday?

Indian stock market ended lower on Thursday, February 20, with the Sensex below the 75,800 mark and Nifty 50 holding a little over 22,910 levels. The market performed weakly on the F&O expiry day. One of the key reasons to why domestic equities slipped is due to concerns related to potential U.S. tariffs on Indian goods. However, broadly market resisted bears, in hopes of better consumption from Q1FY26 after the rate cut. On Friday, February 21, the market will be influenced by PMI data and investors will await RBI's minutes of the meeting. Nifty is expected to witness support around 22,800, while resistance could be at 23,150. Experts believe a decisive breakout on either side could fuel a fresh trigger.

Sensex ended at 75,735.96, down by 203.22 points or 0.3%. On the other hand, BSE Sensex Next 50 closed at 74,880.72, higher by 1,131.07 points or 1.53%.

Stocks like NTPC, M&M, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, and Tata Motors were top gainers with gains of 1.3% to 3.5% on Sensex. While HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, and ITC were top laggards with the decline of 1% to 2.5%.

Nifty 50 closed at 22,913.15, down by 19.75 points or 0.09%. Bank Nifty was down by 236 points. India's volatility index dropped by 5%. Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indexes closed with upside of 1.3% and 1.4% each.

Nifty Auto, Nifty Media, Nifty Metal, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Realty and Nifty Oil & Gas indexes were top performers with gains ranging from 1.1% to 2%. However, private banks and financial stocks overall dragged the market, with the slight downfall in IT stocks as well.

Explaining the latest performance, Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services said, "Domestic equity indices experienced minor losses as rising concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on Indian goods led to capital outflows. Additionally, the proposed trade policy is expected to exert inflationary pressures, with the latest Fed Minutes indicating that an interest rate cut may be delayed."

However, Nair also said, the broader market showed an initial recovery, supported by expectations of improving consumption from Q1FY26, driven by moderating domestic inflation and the recent RBI rate cut.

Meanwhile, Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd believes that weak Asian market cues kept the mood sluggish with a negative bias through the session in the domestic market as investors continue to trade with caution. FIIs exiting Indian equities in droves over the past few months have been making investors jittery, thus leading to risk averseness.

What To Expect From Sensex, Nifty On Friday, February 21?

According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, Nifty and Bank Nifty, mostly remained range-bound. On the lower end, support is placed at 22,800 for Nifty, while resistance is at 23,150. A decisive breakout on either side might trigger a directional move in the market.

Further, Satish Chandra Aluri, Lemonn Markets Desk said, Nifty50 is finding strong support at 22,800. The key question is whether it will break this level to hit fresh lows or rebound above 23,000 in the final week of February expiry. Adding, he said, Markets now await PMI data on Thursday and RBI meeting minutes on Friday for further direction.

For traders, Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities said, the 22950/75800 level is crucial to watch. If the market moves above 22950/75800, it could rally to the 23050-23100/76100-76300 range. Conversely, a breach of 22800/75500 could change the sentiment, potentially leading to a retest of the 22725-22650/75200-75000 levels. Given the current market texture is non-directional, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

Also, Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking said, the ongoing lack of sustained alignment between two key sectors-banking and IT-continues to create uncertainty among market participants, as other sectors are not in a position to drive a major trend. However, the recent rebound in broader indices has offered some relief. In this scenario, a cautious stance on the index is recommended, with close attention to banking and IT for potential signals. Meanwhile, select pockets across various sectors, except FMCG, are showing notable traction. Traders should prioritize identifying quality stocks while refraining from aggressive positions.