Stock Market Outlook Today: Sensex, Nifty Likely to Stay Range-Bound with Positive Bias; FOMC Meeting in Focus

Indian stock market is likely to remain volatile yet cautiously positive on Wednesday, March 18, 2026, as investors track global cues, crude oil prices, and the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Benchmark indices extended gains for a second straight session on March 17, indicating a short-term recovery after the recent correction, but analysts warn that geopolitical tensions and inflation risks could cap sharp upside.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 18 March 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today

At the close of the previous session, the Sensex climbed 567.99 points or 0.75% to settle at 76,070.84, while the Nifty advanced 172.35 points or 0.74% to end at 23,581.15, comfortably holding above the crucial 23,550 level. The rally was broad-based, with most sectoral indices finishing in the green.

Capital goods, telecom, auto, infrastructure, metals, realty, media, and private banking stocks led the gains, rising between 1% and 2%. However, FMCG and IT stocks lagged, ending lower by 0.7% and 1% respectively.

Broader markets also supported the upward momentum. The Nifty Midcap index rose around 1%, while the Smallcap index gained 0.65%, reflecting improved risk appetite among investors. Meanwhile, crude oil prices resumed their upward trend amid persistent geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, raising fears of renewed global inflationary pressures - a factor that markets will closely monitor.

FOMC Meeting: Fed Rate Cut Decision in Focus

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision due later today remains a key trigger. Investors are awaiting signals on interest rates and inflation outlook, which could influence global liquidity flows and emerging market sentiment, including India.

"Going ahead, markets will closely track developments in West Asia and movements in crude oil prices. While the near-term recovery may sustain, further upside will depend on easing geopolitical risks," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Nifty Prediction Today For 17 March 2026

According to Bajaj Broking Research, technical indicators suggest that the Nifty may extend its pullback if it manages to hold above key support levels, though volatility is expected to remain elevated.

The index formed a small bullish candle with shadows in either direction signaling extension of pullback for the second session in a row amid high volatility on account of the weekly expiry and volatile global cues. Index is seen rebounding in the last two sessions from extreme oversold territory after testing the psychological 23,000 levels.

"Going ahead, index holding above Tuesday low (23346) will signal extension of the pullback towards the immediate resistance of 23,700-23,800 levels being the confluence of the last week breakdown area and 8 days EMA. Key short term support is placed in the 22,700-22,400 zone, which coincides with the previous gap area and the 78.6% retracement of the earlier major up move," said the Bajaj Broking Research.

Bank Outlook Today For Wednesday

"Technically, index moving below Monday's low 53,250 level could trigger further downside towards the 52,500-51,800 zone in the coming sessions being the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the January 2025 lows and aligns with the low of the breakout candle formed in April 2025," it noted.

The index has recently rebounded from the extreme oversold territory. "Hence, holding above Monday's low can led to some consolidation in the range of 55,800-53,250. Index need to start forming higher high and higher low on sustained basis to signal a pause in the current downtrend."

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