Stock Market Outlook Today, 23 Feb: Sensex, Nifty to Consolidate as Trump Tariffs Hike, Crude Prices in Focus

Indian equity markets head into the new trading week on Monday, February 23, 2026, with cautious optimism after staging a strong rebound in the previous session. However, global uncertainty driven by US President Donald Trump's fresh tariff escalation and lingering geopolitical tensions is expected to keep investors on edge.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 23 February 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today

On February 20, domestic benchmarks recovered a part of the losses seen earlier in the week, supported by broad-based buying across most sectors. After opening on a cautious note amid concerns over US-Iran tensions, firm crude prices and weakness in IT stocks, buying interest gradually strengthened during the session. The Nifty moved above the 25,550 mark and touched an intraday high of 25,663.55 before mild profit booking emerged in the final hour.

The Sensex closed 316.57 points, or 0.38 percent, higher at 82,814.71, while the Nifty gained 116.90 points, or 0.46 percent, to settle at 25,571.25. Broader markets showed mixed trends, with the Nifty Midcap index rising around 0.5 percent, while small-cap stocks ended marginally lower. Sector-wise, power, metal, capital goods and PSU bank stocks led the gains, while IT stocks remained under pressure.

Trump Tariffs and Global Cues to Drive Monday's Trade

Market participants will closely track global developments on Monday, especially reactions to Trump's decision to raise blanket import tariffs to 15 percent after the US Supreme Court blocked his earlier tariff framework. The move has added to volatility across global markets and could influence risk sentiment in emerging markets, including India.

Elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical developments in the Middle East are also expected to remain key overhangs. Analysts believe that while domestic fundamentals remain stable, global headlines linked to trade policy and geopolitics could cap sharp upside in the near term.

Nifty Outlook Today for February 23

According to Bajaj Broking, the Nifty's technical structure suggests consolidation rather than a sharp directional move in the immediate term.

"The index formed a decent bullish candle with an upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating a bounce from lower levels while also highlighting supply at higher zones. It is currently trading below its 21, 50, and 100-day EMAs, with the next strong and reliable support placed near the long-term 200-day EMA around 25,250. In the near term, the index is expected to consolidate within a broad range of 25,000-26,000, maintaining a sideways bias."

Analysts note that volatility remains elevated, with India VIX witnessing a spike due to persistent global uncertainty. On the downside, immediate support for the Nifty is seen around 25,350, followed by 25,200, which coincides with the 200-day EMA.

On the upside, resistance is placed near 25,650 and 25,720, levels where selling pressure may re-emerge.

Bank Nifty Prediction Today

The banking index continues to show relative strength compared to the broader market, supported largely by PSU bank stocks.

"Bank Nifty displayed relative strength, pulling back from the lows while holding above its 21-day EMA near 60,380. This was mainly lead by PSU bank basket. The index formed a bullish candlestick that recovered nearly half of the previous session's losses, indicating active buying at key levels, though some profit booking was visible at higher zones," stated the brokerage.

Bajaj Broking expects Bank Nifty to trade in a wide range of 60,000-61,750 in the near term. Immediate resistance is seen at 61,400 and 61,750, while key supports lie at 60,800 and 60,500. A decisive breakout on either side of this range could set the tone for the next directional move.

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