Stock Market Outlook Today, August 3, 2026: Sensex, Nifty Likely to Open Higher; RBI MPC, PMI Data in Focus

Indian benchmark indices are expected to begin the week on a positive note as strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and a healthy first-quarter earnings season continue to support investor sentiment. However, traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which begins today and the policy decision due later this week.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 3 August 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction for Monday

According to market experts, investors will closely monitor the RBI's interest rate decision, India's Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, movements in crude oil prices and the evolving geopolitical situation in West Asia, all of which are expected to influence market direction this week.

RBI Policy, PMI Data and Global Cues to Drive Markets

"Indian equities are expected to trade with a positive bias as healthy domestic macros, and a strong Q1FY27 earnings season continue to support investor confidence. Market participants will closely monitor RBI's monetary policy decision, India's Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, along with developments in crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in West Asia next week," said Siddhartha Khemka- Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Indian equity markets ended the previous trading session on a firm footing, supported by broad-based buying across sectors. Stable crude oil prices and easing geopolitical concerns lifted investor confidence, allowing benchmark indices to extend their gains and remain comfortably above key technical support levels.

The Nifty 50 rose 0.27% to settle at 24,383, while the BSE Sensex advanced 0.21% to close at 78,094.

Nifty Prediction for Today

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty traded within a narrow range but maintained a positive bias, ending near the 24,400 mark. On the daily chart, the index formed a high-wave candle with a higher high and a higher low, signalling that bullish momentum remains intact. On the weekly chart, the formation of a bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low also indicates underlying strength.

"Index bias remains positive and dips should be used as a buying opportunity for up move towards the short-term resistance area of 24,500-24,600 being the confluence of the high of July and April 2026. A breakout above the same will signal a breakout above 3 months consolidation range and open fresh leg of up move towards the 24,800 and 25,000 levels in the coming weeks," said Bajaj Broking Research.

On the downside, analysts expect immediate support in the 24,100-24,200 zone. A stronger support base lies between 24,000 and 23,800, supported by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), last Monday's gap area and a rising trendline connecting previous major lows.

Bank Nifty Outlook for Monday

Bank Nifty continued to consolidate around the 57,000 mark, forming its third consecutive high-wave candle with a higher high and a higher low, reflecting stock-specific action rather than a broad market trend.

The banking index has remained within the 56,500-58,700 trading range over the past six weeks, with 57,500 emerging as the immediate hurdle.

A decisive move above Wednesday's high and the 57,500 mark could trigger fresh buying momentum, paving the way for an advance towards 58,000 and 58,500, which coincides with the upper band of the last 6 weeks consolidation. However, failure to surpass 57,500 levels is likely to keep the index range-bound between 56,500-57,500.

"On the downside, the 56,500-56,000 zone remains a crucial support area. This region is reinforced by the confluence of the lower band of the six-week trading range, an ascending trendline, and the 52-week EMA, making it a strong demand zone," said the brokerage.

According to the brokerage, as long as Bank Nifty remains above this important support zone, the broader outlook for the banking index is expected to stay constructive, with traders likely to adopt a buy-on-dips approach.

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