Stock Market Outlook Today, July 9: Can Sensex, Nifty Bounce Back Amid US-Iran Tensions and Rising Oil Prices?

After a sharp sell-off in Wednesday's session, investors will be watching whether the Sensex and Nifty 50 can recover on Thursday or extend their losses. The Indian stock market came under heavy selling pressure as renewed tensions between the US and Iran hurt global sentiment and pushed crude oil prices higher.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 9 July 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today

The Nifty 50 slipped on 8 July below key near-term support levels and ended near the day's low, while the Sensex also recorded a steep decline, reflecting weakening investor sentiment. At the close, the Nifty 50 fell 2.12% to settle at 23,882, while the BSE Sensex declined 2.15% to finish at 76,503.60.

Markets came under heavy pressure after geopolitical tensions escalated following comments by US President Donald Trump regarding the ceasefire with Iran. The uncertainty pushed investors towards safer assets and triggered profit booking across sectors.

US-Iran Conflict, Crude Oil Prices to Drive Stock Market Sentiment Today

"Indian equities are expected to remain volatile in the near term as global risk sentiment has deteriorated following US President Donald Trump's comments on ending the ceasefire with Iran and withdrawing from the MoU. The developments have significantly heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with the India VIX surging nearly 30% to a three-week high," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

He added that the spike in geopolitical risks has also lifted crude oil prices. The escalation has renewed concerns over global energy supplies, pushing Brent crude above US$79/bbl (+6.2%) and is likely to keep sentiment fragile until clarity emerges.

"Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor progress between the US and Iran, along with the security of shipping routes, as these are expected to remain the key drivers of crude oil prices and overall market sentiment in the near term," he added.

Nifty Prediction Today, July 9; What Can Traders Expect on Thursday

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty formed a strong bearish candlestick with a lower high, lower low and a bearish gap, indicating that sellers currently have the upper hand.

The brokerage noted that the index erased its recent gains after slipping below the important support zone around 24,250 and eventually tested the 23,800 mark during intraday trade.

"Going ahead, a breach below the key support area of 23,800 will open further downside towards the 23,500-23,600 levels in the coming sessions being the confluence of the previous gap area and 61.8% retracement of the entire previous up move 23,070-24,530. While holding above 23,800 will lead to consolidation in the range of 23,800-24,350. Immediate bias remains down below Wednesday's gap down area of 24,350," said Bajaj Broking Research.

For Thursday's session, 23,800 remains the immediate support level to watch. A sustained move below this level could increase selling pressure, while holding above it may help the market stabilise.

Bank Nifty Outlook Today

Bank Nifty also witnessed strong selling pressure and closed below the crucial 57,000 mark after forming a bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and lower low.

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the index has entered a corrective phase after failing to hold key support levels. "Index contrary to our expectations closed below the immediate support area of 57,000-56,800 signaling corrective bias. A follow through weakness will open further downside towards 55,500-56,000 levels in the coming sessions."

The brokerage further added, "On the higher side only a move above 58,000 will signal resumption of the up-move failure to do so will lead to some consolidation in the range of 55,000-58,000 levels."

It also noted that the daily stochastic indicator has generated a sell signal, suggesting that corrective momentum could continue in the short term.

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