Stock Market Outlook Today June 4: Sensex, Nifty on Thursday Likely to Stay Volatile Ahead of RBI MPC Decision

Indian benchmark indices are expected to remain range-bound with a cautious bias on Thursday, June 4, as investors continue to monitor geopolitical developments in West Asia, foreign institutional investor (FII) activity, crude oil prices and the outcome of the ongoing RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 4 June 2026; Sensex, Nifty Prediction for Thursday

The market witnessed another volatile session on Wednesday, June 3. Benchmark indices opened weak amid heavy selling in information technology stocks and concerns over global uncertainties. The Nifty slipped to an intraday low of 23,151.50 during the first half of trade before witnessing a sharp recovery led by buying at lower levels. The rebound helped the market recover a large part of its losses by the closing bell.

At the close, the Sensex declined 303.67 points, or 0.41%, to settle at 74,346.17, while the Nifty 50 fell 77.95 points, or 0.33%, to end the day at 23,405.60.

Market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key domestic and global developments. Rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions and continued foreign fund outflows are expected to keep volatility elevated in the near term.

"Markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term amid escalating tensions in West Asia, which continue to keep crude oil prices elevated and triggering persistent Foreign Institutional Investor outflows. Investor sentiment is expected to remain cautious as the lack of meaningful progress in the ongoing US-Iran negotiations continues to fuel concerns over global energy supplies, inflationary pressures and broader macroeconomic stability," said Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Nifty Prediction Today, June 4: What Can Traders Expect?

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty formed a doji candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart, indicating strong buying demand around lower support levels. The pattern suggests that traders continue to accumulate positions whenever the index approaches the 23,200-23,000 zone.

Analysts expect the index to remain in a consolidation phase over the next few sessions unless a decisive breakout emerges. The immediate trading range is seen between 23,000 and 23,550.

"Nifty has key support in the range of 23,200-23,000 being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April bullish gap area, lower band of recent consolidation and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (22,182-24,601). On the higher side 23,750-23,800 is expected to act as resistance being the confluence of the current week high and 20 days EMA," stated Bajaj Broking.

The brokerage further noted that a sustained move above Tuesday's high of 23,556 could trigger fresh buying momentum and open the door towards the 23,750-23,800 resistance zone. On the downside, holding above 23,200 will remain crucial for maintaining the broader positive structure.

Bank Nifty Outlook for Thursday

Bank Nifty also showed resilience despite broader market volatility. The banking index formed a second consecutive bullish candle on the daily chart, indicating a pullback from important support levels amid stock-specific buying activity.

Analysts believe Bank Nifty may continue to consolidate in a broad range before making its next directional move. The index is expected to trade between 52,500 and 55,000 in the near term.

The crucial support zone remains at 52,700-52,500, which coincides with the lower band of the April bullish gap and the 61.8% retracement level of the previous rally. On the upside, resistance is placed in the 54,600-55,000 range, where the current week's high and the 20-day exponential moving average converge as per the brokerage.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed are solely those of the individual analysts or entities and do not reflect the views of Goodreturns.in or Greynium Information Technologies Private Limited (together referred as "we"). We do not guarantee, endorse or take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any content, nor do we provide any investment advice or solicit the purchase or sale of securities. All information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should be independently verified from licensed financial advisors before making any investment decisions.