Stock Market Outlook Today, March 12: Sensex, Nifty Likely to Stay Volatile Amid LPG Supply Concerns, FII Flow

Indian equity markets are expected to remain volatile on Thursday, March 12, as investors continue to track geopolitical developments in West Asia, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and persistent foreign fund outflows. Weak global sentiment and cautious investor positioning may keep benchmark indices such as the Nifty 50 and Sensex under pressure in the near term.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 12 March 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today

Market experts believe geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices are currently the key factors influencing investor sentiment.

"Indian equities are likely to remain volatile driven by developments in the West Asia conflict, sharp movements in crude oil prices and continuous foreign fund outflows," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

On Wednesday, the domestic markets resumed their downward trend after a brief rebound in the previous session. Persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows and selling pressure in banking, financial services and automobile stocks dragged the benchmark indices lower.

The decline was further intensified by heightened geopolitical tensions after the United States and Israel launched some of their heaviest strikes on Iran, keeping investors cautious despite signals from the US about possible de-escalation.

Oil & Energy Prices; Key Triggers To Drive Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment may remain fragile in the short term as global risk appetite continues to be affected by the conflict in West Asia. Meanwhile, oil prices witnessed a temporary pullback after reports suggested that the International Energy Agency could consider a record release of strategic reserves to stabilise crude markets.

The Nifty 50 ended Wednesday's session at 23,866, falling 394 points or 1.6%. Despite a brief recovery earlier, the index has declined more than 5% across seven trading sessions in March, reflecting sustained selling pressure in the market.

Broader markets showed mixed trends. The Nifty Midcap 100 index slipped about 1.2%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined 0.3%, indicating cautious participation from investors. The India VIX, a key measure of market volatility, jumped more than 8% to around 20.5, signalling expectations of heightened market swings in the near term.

Among sectoral indices, Auto and Private Banks emerged as the worst performers. The Nifty Auto index dropped 3.1%, as the sector continued to face multiple challenges, including rising raw material costs and ongoing semiconductor supply constraints affecting vehicle production.

On the domestic policy front, gas-related stocks remained in focus after the government prioritised LPG supply and encouraged higher domestic production amid supply concerns linked to ongoing US-Iran tensions. LPG prices were also increased by more than Rs 60 for a 14.2 kg non-subsidised household cylinder across major cities as Brent crude surged to nearly $92.8 per barrel, its highest level in four years.

Nifty Prediction Today for March 12

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty index is currently testing a critical technical support zone and may remain range-bound unless a clear breakout occurs.

"The index formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling lack of follow through to previous sessions pullback with the index testing the key support area of 24,000-23,700."

"Index holding above the same will lead to consolidation in the range of 24,400-23,700. A breach below the current week low 23,700 will open further downside towards 23,300-23,200 levels in the coming sessions."

Bank Nifty Outlook

Banking stocks are also expected to remain under pressure as global uncertainties and foreign outflows continue to weigh on financial sector sentiment.

"Index formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling lack of follow through to previous sessions pullback with the index falling below the 56,000 levels."

"Going ahead index to trade with downward bias and test the current week low of 55,250 levels. A breach below 55,200 levels will lead to extension of the decline towards 54,300-54,000 levels in the coming sessions."

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