Stock Market Outlook Today, October 1: Sensex, Nifty Likely To Remain Volatile Amid Global Cues, Crude Prices

The Indian stock market is likely to remain volatile on Thursday, October 1, as investors enter the new trading series amid continued global uncertainty and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Benchmark indices ended Wednesday's session close to the day's lows after giving up their early gains, signalling continued selling pressure at higher levels.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 1st October 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction for Thursday

The Nifty 50 declined 0.42% to close at 22,620, while the Sensex fell 0.07% to settle at 72,480. The market remained choppy through the session, with an intraday spike in Brent crude oil prices adding to investor caution. The movement of crude oil, along with global market cues, is likely to remain important for the direction of domestic equities in the near term.

Nifty Outlook Today: Check Key Resistances

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty 50 formed an inverted hammer candle on Wednesday, with a small real body and a long upper shadow. The pattern indicated selling pressure around the 22,800 level after the index failed to sustain its intraday gains.

The Nifty opened on a flat note and moved higher during the first half of the session, reaching an intraday high of 22,809. However, selling at higher levels erased the gains and pushed the index back towards the 22,600 zone by the close.

The immediate bias for the Nifty remains on the downside, according to the brokerage. A further decline could take the index towards the key support zone of 22,400. This level is important as it represents the confluence of trendline support connecting the major lows of the past two years and the 200-week exponential moving average.

"A move above Thursday's high of 22,810 will signal a pullback towards the 23,000 levels. However, for a meaningful trend reversal index would require forming a sustained Higher High-Higher Low structure and reclaim the 23,000-23,100 level. A sustained move above 23,100 could signal a pause in the ongoing downtrend," said Bajaj Broking Research.

For Thursday's session, traders are therefore likely to track the 22,810 level on the upside and 22,400 on the downside. A sustained move above 22,810 could open the way towards 23,000, while continued weakness could bring the 22,400 support zone into focus.

Bank Nifty Outlook Today: Pullback Seen From Oversold Levels

Bank Nifty showed relative strength during Wednesday's session and formed a bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low. The index gained 0.7%, snapping a two-session losing streak as it staged a recovery from extremely oversold levels.

Bajaj Broking Research expects the next move to depend on whether Bank Nifty can sustain its recovery above Wednesday's high of 55,135. A follow-through move above this level could extend the pullback towards 55,600 and 56,000, which are important levels as they coincide with the recent breakdown area.

"Going ahead, a follow through pullback above Thursday's high 55,135 will signal extension of the pullback towards 55,600 and 56,000 levels in the coming sessions being the recent breakdown area. Failure to move above Thursday's high will signal some consolidation in the range of 53,500-55,100 levels in the coming sessions ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome during next week," said Bajaj Broking Research.

On the downside, Bank Nifty has short-term support in the 53,500-53,000 zone. Bajaj Broking Research said this area represents the confluence of previous major lows and the measuring implication of the recent range breakdown from 58,500 to 56,000.

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