Stock Market Outlook Today, October 12: Sensex, Nifty Likely To Extend Recovery? Check Bank Nifty Prediction

Indian stock market is likely to remain cautious on Monday, October 12, 2026, despite a strong recovery in the previous session, as investors track global risks, crude oil prices, foreign institutional investor (FII) flows and the rupee's movement.

The benchmark indices staged a sharp rebound, supported by buying in IT stocks following Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS) quarterly earnings announcement, with positive momentum extending to the broader market.

Stock Market Outlook Today, 12 October 2026: Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today

The Nifty 50 closed 1.30% higher at 22,520.45, while the BSE Sensex gained 1.23% to settle at 72,472. The recovery came after a prolonged period of selling pressure, although analysts believe stronger price action and supportive macroeconomic developments will be needed to establish a sustained uptrend.

Investors will continue to monitor developments in global markets, particularly movements in crude oil prices, the rupee and foreign fund flows. The rupee has slipped to Rs 96.9 against the US dollar, while Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel, adding to concerns over inflation and market sentiment.

"Indian equities are likely to remain cautious amid elevated global risks. The rupee has slipped to ₹96.9/US$, Brent crude remains above US$100/bbl and sustained FII selling continues to weigh on sentiment. Brent crude held around US$103/bbl even after US President Donald Trump indicated that military action against Iran would not resume before the November midterm elections," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

The direction of crude oil prices and overseas fund flows will remain important factors for domestic equities. Sustained foreign investor selling could limit the market's upside, while further buying in IT and other heavyweight stocks may support the indices.

Nifty Prediction Today: Check Technical Outlook For Monday Trading Session

The Nifty 50 formed a strong bullish candle, remaining within the previous session's trading range and signalling a recovery from the April 2026 low of 22,182. The index also snapped its eight-week losing streak and ended the week marginally higher, offering some relief after the recent decline.

However, analysts at Bajaj Broking Research cautioned that the latest rebound does not yet confirm a sustained market recovery. "The recent rebound after an eight-week losing streak is encouraging, but the modest weekly gains are not sufficient to confirm a sustained recovery. At this stage, the move appears to be an initial relief rally, and the market needs stronger price action and supportive macroeconomic developments to establish a durable uptrend," said Bajaj Broking Research.

For Monday's session, the 22,600 level will be a key resistance to watch. According to Bajaj Broking Research, a move above 22,600 could open the way for a further recovery towards 22,800 and 23,100.

On the downside, failure to cross 22,600 could lead to corrective consolidation within the 22,200-22,600 range. Traders will therefore watch whether the index can sustain its recent gains or faces renewed selling pressure near resistance.

Bank Nifty Prediction Today

The Bank Nifty also formed a bullish candle, registering a higher high and a higher low after the previous session's corrective decline. The banking index continued to outperform the Nifty and ended the week near its high of 55,419.30.

Bajaj Broking Research said a sustained move above 55,500 could extend the recovery in the banking index.

"Going ahead, a follow through up move above 55,500 will signal extension of the pullback towards 55,900 and 56,200 levels in the coming sessions being the recent breakdown area. Failure to move above 55,500 will signal some consolidation in the range of 54,000-55,500 levels in the coming sessions" said Bajaj Broking Research.

On the downside, the 53,500-54,000 zone is an important short-term support area, supported by the previous month's low and a key retracement level of the earlier upward move.

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